172
FXUS62 KRAH 010602
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
202 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1031 PM MONDAY...
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED NE. A FEW LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN NC IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE TRIAD TO THE UPPER
50S IN THE SOUTHEAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM MONDAY...
BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT, COOL AND DRY (PWS AOA 0.5") HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE BY TO OUR N WHILE NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUE/TUE
NIGHT, AS BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
APART FROM SOME EARLY-MORNING LINGERING CLOUDS IN OUR SE AND A FEW
HIGH THIN CLOUDS ACROSS THE S IN THE AFTERNOON, SUNSHINE TUE SHOULD
BE ABUNDANT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF
TUE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE FRONT TO OUR S WILL HAVE STARTED
MOVING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT, WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND DEEPENING MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 285-300K, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SW AND W CWA AFTER 06Z. AS SUCH, SW AND W COUNTIES WILL
TREND TOWARD INCREASING STRATOCU LATE. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THICKNESSES ADJUSTED FOR WEAK/WANING CAA AND HIGH INSOLATION SUPPORT
HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL, MOSTLY MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS SHOULD ALSO
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL, IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. -GIH
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UNDER STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING, THEN SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE
FOR SUN INTO MON WITH TEMPS HEADING BACK TOWARD NORMAL.
WED-FRI: GENERALLY DRY AND WARMING, WITH PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP
OPPORTUNITIES. AS THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR N LIFTS
FURTHER ENE OVER E CANADA, ITS WANING INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA WILL
ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH
CENTRAL NC WED, ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL STABILITY AFFORDED BY A
LINGERING IN SITU WEDGE AND STRATUS OVER THE W PIEDMONT SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF THE WAA REGIME THERE, AND A LITTLE UPGLIDE-INDUCED
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NE LATE IN THE DAY INTO
WED NIGHT. OTHERWISE, STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA WILL DRAW INCREASING
DEWPOINTS FROM THE ATLANTIC AND GULF INTO NC THROUGH LATE WORK WEEK,
AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE HIGH CLOSES OFF AND
STRENGTHENS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, ALTHOUGH THE STEADILY BUILDING
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST -- INDUCED BY DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST -- WILL LIMIT OUR CAPE WITH
WARM/DRY AIR ALOFT. OUR NW COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO LATE
THU FROM SPILLOVER TERRAIN CONVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE OVER
TN/KY AND THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT ANY INCOMING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DIMINISHING, WITH LOW COVERAGE. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY FRI, BUT A POTENTIAL WRINKLE LIES WITH POLAR STREAM
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND, RIDING ALONG THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE, AND TO WHAT DEGREE IT CAN PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC LATE FRI AS A BRIEF BACKDOOR
FRONT. MODEL OUTPUT IS MIXED AND VARIED, AS THIS KIND OF DETAIL IS
TOUGH TO RESOLVE AT THIS RANGE, BUT WITH THE LATEST LREF SHOWING A
30-50% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP NEAR A WEAK AND FLEETING BACKDOOR
FRONT ACROSS OUR FAR N FRI AFTN/EVENING, WILL INCLUDE A SMALL POP IN
THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THICKNESSES CLIMB EACH DAY, FROM
ABOUT 10 M ABOVE NORMAL WED TO 50-60 M ABOVE NORMAL BY FRI, SO
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S WED (NEAR 70 NW, WHERE THE STABLE POOL
SHOULD LINGER A BIT), 80S THU, AND MID 80S TO LOWER 90S FRI (SEE
RECORD TEMP SECTION BELOW). LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD, MOSTLY IN THE
60S, WITH AREAS OF STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
SAT-MON: A STRONG AND DIGGING POLAR STREAM TROUGH SAT/SUN OVER
ONTARIO/QUEBEC/HUDSON BAY INTO THE N GREAT LAKES REGION ALONG WITH
THE EJECTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISS VALLEY WILL FLATTEN OUR
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WITH INCREASING SW STEERING FLOW INTO THE
CAROLINAS. WE MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS SAT/SAT NIGHT, MAINLY N AND NW,
BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT, AND WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS THEN.
PREDICTABILITY DIPS THEREAFTER, WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE POLAR STREAM TROUGH AND HOW MUCH (IF AT ALL) IT
PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH, AS THIS WILL INFLUENCE THE
PACE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO OUR AREA. THE FRONT COULD PUSH
COMPLETELY THROUGH CENTRAL NC BY SUN NIGHT AND SETTLE TO OUR SE BY
MON, ALTHOUGH A LESS-AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND/OR SLOWER
SOUTHERN STREAM WITH LESS PHASING MAY HINDER FRONTAL PROGRESSION.
GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL FOR A MORE LAGGED FRONT, WILL RETAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH MON. HIGHS SAT SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 80S, BUT
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER CUTTING A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGH TEMPS.
EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE UPPER 80S SUN, THEN BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL MON, IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. -GIH
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS, IN CONTINUED SEASONABLY MOIST AND HUMID
AIR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WILL DISPERSE FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST FROM RDU AND RWI TO FAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT FRONT
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRE-FRONTAL WSWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME NWLY AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS MORNING, THEN, WHILE WEAKENING, GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH NLY AND
NELY THIS AFTERNOON AND ELY TONIGHT. THAT ELY FLOW WILL DIRECT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE AND RESULT IN THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT AND
EXPANSION OF AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS NEAR FAY AROUND THE END OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD, THEN NWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH 12Z WED.
OUTLOOK: MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER THE PIEDMONT
(ESPECIALLY INT/GSO) THROUGH WED, FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WED
NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AGAIN THU
NIGHT, AMID INCREASINGLY MOIST/HUMID LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 3:
KRDU: 91/1967
KFAY: 90/1934
APRIL 4:
KGSO: 86/1934
KRDU: 88/1934
KFAY: 93/1910
APRIL 5:
KGSO: 87/1942
KRDU: 90/1942
KFAY: 91/1942
APRIL 6:
KFAY: 91/2010
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 3:
KGSO: 64/1946
KRDU: 62/2000
KFAY: 65/1977
APRIL 4:
KGSO: 62/1999
KRDU: 63/2017
KFAY: 63/2017
APRIL 5:
KGSO: 60/2023
KRDU: 64/1910
KFAY: 64/2008
APRIL 6:
KGSO: 65/2023
KFAY: 69/2023
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...GREEN/BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...NWS
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