980
FXUS62 KRAH 011825
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
225 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WHICH WILL
SLOWLY TURN THE WIND FROM THE NORTH TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT RESULT IN MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE WITH THE
SURFACE DEWPOINT, THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. WHILE LOCATIONS TO THE EAST SUCH AS ROANOKE RAPIDS, ROCKY
MOUNTAIN, AND CLINTON SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT, EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN WADESBORO AND WINSTON-SALEM BY DAYBREAK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM TUESDAY...
A SUB-TROPICAL MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SWRN N.
ATLANTIC, WITH STANDARDIZED 850-500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 2-3 SIGMA
FORECAST BY 12Z THU. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY ALONG
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND DIRECT A WARMING
AND MOISTENING SELY TO SLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS. THAT WARMING WILL LIKELY NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK, HOWEVER, OWING TO CLOUDY OR MOSTLY SO CONDITIONS
COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING WAA AND DEEPENING SATURATION TRAPPED BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE WAA WILL BE STRONGEST AND SATURATED
LAYER DEEPEST AND LOWEST FROM THE NW PIEDMONT WWD INTO THE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL RESULT AND
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT MAY CONSEQUENTLY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 60 F WED, WITH TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE LIKELY TO RANGE THROUGH
THE 60S, TO LWR 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN, SRN SANDHILLS, AND SRN
PIEDMONT.
STEADY MOISTURE ADVECTION, CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE 60S BY THU MORNING, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LOW OVERCAST, AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE, WED NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES, GENERALLY LWR-MID 60S AND
ABOUT 20F ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 430 AM TUESDAY...
THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY A SUBTROPICAL HIGH ALOFT THAT REMAINS
ANCHORED EAST OF FL, WHILE A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH FROM EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TO BECOME CENTERED EAST OF GA/FL BY
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL ACT TO STALL OUT A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND PW VALUES TO 150-200% OF NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHILE S/SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF WARM, MOIST
AIR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND A CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS
EACH MORNING. SBCAPE IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE
EACH DAY. SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE NW IF THE FRONT CAN GET CLOSE ENOUGH, AND AGAIN ACROSS
THE N ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OVER SE CANADA TRY TO PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTH INTO
VA. HOWEVER, CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH, AND THE
HIGH TO OUR SE SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.
FURTHERMORE, GFS/ECM/CMC ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF ARE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AT MOST BOTH DAYS. SO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACTS TO PUSH THE FRONTAL ZONE EVEN
FARTHER WEST, WHILE THE BACKDOOR FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
FINALLY STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST, IN RESPONSE TO THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE AND A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH
OUR REGION, BUT HOW QUICKLY IT IS ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH WILL DEPEND
ON THE DEGREE OF PHASING THAT OCCURS BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES. GUIDANCE
HAS OVERALL BEEN TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT, NOT BRINGING IT
THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT (ON THE ECMWF) OR MONDAY (ON THE GFS).
SOME STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT AS THERE LOOKS TO BE
AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY AROUND, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER IT
CAN LINK UP WITH DIURNAL HEATING. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO
MONDAY ESPECIALLY SE IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLOW ENOUGH, SO
CONTINUE SOME LOW-END POPS INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM DURING THE PERIOD, AS HIGHS INCREASE
TO 80S ON THURSDAY AND UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOWS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S. THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY IS CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR APRIL 4 AND 5 AT GSO, RDU
AND FAY. IT WILL NOT BE A "DRY HEAT" EITHER AS DEW POINTS WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE 60S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE LOWER
CONFIDENCE AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT IS ABLE TO
GET HERE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY AND
UPPER-60S TO MID-70S ON MONDAY. ONE BENEFIT OF THE HIGHER DEW POINTS
IS THEY SHOULD KEEP RH'S WELL ABOVE LEVELS THAT WOULD AGGRAVATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 225 PM TUESDAY...
TAF PERIOD: DEPENDING ON THE TERMINAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FOR A MAJORITY OF, IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT FAY/RWI THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT THE OTHER THREE TERMINALS. AS NORTHERLY
FLOW WEAKENS AND TURNS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE
DELAYS THE ARRIVAL OF THESE CLOUDS AT INT/GSO/FAY COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IN ADDITION, HAVE ADDED IFR CEILINGS AFTER 12Z AT
INT/GSO.
OUTLOOK: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, REACHING RDU AND RWI, WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS IN
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ALL
TERMINALS WILL COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 3:
KRDU: 91/1967
KFAY: 90/1934
APRIL 4:
KGSO: 86/1934
KRDU: 88/1934
KFAY: 93/1910
APRIL 5:
KGSO: 87/1942
KRDU: 90/1942
KFAY: 91/1942
APRIL 6:
KFAY: 91/2010
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 3:
KGSO: 64/1946
KRDU: 62/2000
KFAY: 65/1977
APRIL 4:
KGSO: 62/1999
KRDU: 63/2017
KFAY: 63/2017
APRIL 5:
KGSO: 60/2023
KRDU: 64/1910
KFAY: 64/2008
APRIL 6:
KGSO: 65/2023
KFAY: 69/2023
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...GREEN
CLIMATE...NWS
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