426
FXUS62 KRAH 191908
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
308 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM, SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH VA
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO AND BRIEFLY STALL OVER
NORTHERN NC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN RETURN NORTH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL HIGH IN THE MID-LEVELS, WITH STANDARDIZED 700-
500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 2-3 SIGMA, WILL MIGRATE ALONG AND OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH SUN MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SWRN N. ATLANTIC FROM
NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC, INCLUDING
ACROSS NRN AND CNTL VA BY 12Z SUN.
FEW, FLAT CUMULUS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING INTO THE 80S F THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET, AS WILL BREEZY AND GUSTY
SSWLY SURFACE WINDS. THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL OTHERWISE BE
CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT SSWLY STIRRING AND PERIODS OF CIRRUS AND
CIRROSTRATUS, AS HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS OTHERWISE DEEPLY
VERY DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING A PROMINENT AND PRISTINE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER EVIDENT IN THE 12Z GSO AND SURROUNDING REGIONAL RAOBS OVER THE
SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE, ~12-18 DEGREES SO, AND MOSTLY IN THE LWR-MID 60S FOR LOWS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...
ALOFT, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST, WHILE THE S/W OVER THE SRN PLAINS LIFTS NNEWD ACROSS THE CNTL
PLAINS AND NRN MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL
RETREAT WWD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AS THE CANADIAN HIGH
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS, DRAPED ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WRT EXACTLY WHERE/HOW
FAR INTO NC THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS ON SUN/SUN NIGHT. THERE
COULD BE AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
FRONT, POTENTIALLY SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NC, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
FRONT SETTLES. FOR NOW STILL EXPECT THE WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC, HOWEVER THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,
ESPECIALLY NW, LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY,
MID/UPPER 80S, WHILE LOWS WILL DEPEND ON THE BACKDOOR FRONT, BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...
* TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS, WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A LIMITED
RISK OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MAY LOOK RAINY AND UNSETTLED,
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED DURING THE
PERIOD AND THE WEEK WON'T BE A WASHOUT.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN ANONYMOUSLY STRONG 591DM
RIDGE AT 500 MB CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF GA/NORTHERN FL ON
MONDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR WI
ON MONDAY MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN OH VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN MS VALLEY. THIS
FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
ON MONDAY EVENING AND MOVING INTO WESTERN NC TOWARD TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS WV,
SOUTHERN VA INTO NORTHEASTERN NC EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE COULD PRODUCE A ROGUE SHOWER ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE MONDAY
SHOULD FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH
HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AREAS NEAR THE FRONT. THESE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH MOST OF CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM
SECTOR, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO PERHAPS 30 MPH AT TIMES. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MODERATED BY CLOUDS, A WARM AIRMASS AND A STIRRING SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MILD LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, ABOUT 14 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TRAILING TROUGH WEAKENING AND SHEARING OUT ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
WEAKEN AS IT EXITS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND DRIFTS/LIMPS INTO THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS LATER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN PW VALUES INCREASING
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A TREND OF A SLOWER
ARRIVING FRONT AND A TREND OF WEAKER FORCING AND SLIGHTLY
REDUCED QPF. NUDGED POPS DOWN A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND THE NBM GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WEAKER SUPPORT. THE FRONT
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK ALTHOUGH A LIMITED
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION PERSISTS. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
FEATURED ON TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ALTHOUGH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF STORMS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 80S WITH HIGHS
PERHAPS LINGERING IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE VA BORDER. MILD LOWS
WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. RAINFALL
TOTALS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HAVE TRENDED DOWN AND
GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR OR UNDER A HALF INCH. -BLAES
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 155 PM SATURDAY...
BREEZY AND GUSTY SWLY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WHILE CNTL NC REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
"BERMUDA" HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTLOOK: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF POST-
FRONTAL, IFR-MVFR CEILINGS OVER SERN VA AND NERN NC LATE SUN-SUN
NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH MAY ADVANCE TO NEAR AND ESPECIALLY JUST
NORTHEAST OF RWI SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
NELY SURFACE WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS IN GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL ALSO BE
MOST LIKELY AT RWI, DURING THE EVENING SUN. A FRONT AND NEXT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL SETTLE OVER NC TUE-WED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 19:
KGSO: 92/1917
KRDU: 93/1941
KFAY: 94/1941
APRIL 20:
KGSO: 94/1917
KRDU: 93/1896
KFAY: 94/1917
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 20:
KGSO: 65/1941
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 69/2011
APRIL 21:
KGSO: 64/1927
KRDU: 70/1896
KFAY: 68/2017
APRIL 22:
KGSO: 63/1967
KRDU: 66/1909
KFAY: 64/1963
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page