213
FXUS62 KRAH 210017
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
817 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN NC WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. A SLOW-MOVING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND STALL
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 817 PM SUNDAY...
EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN UPPER RIDGE
OFF THE NC COAST WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH
LIKE LAST NIGHT, ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA BUT NOTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. AT THE SURFACE, WHAT WAS ONCE
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN HAS
STALLED AS OF 00Z. KRAX REFLECTIVITY DATA IS INDICATING SOME INBOUND
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS APPROACHING RWI, WHILE ALSO PICKING UP SOME
INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAKING THEIR WAY UP I-40. BETWEEN THE
LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE, WHAT'S LEFT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH
ENTIRELY OVERNIGHT.
WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE, PRECIP CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE WINDS
BRIEFLY TOOK ON A NORTHERLY COMPONENT, LOOK FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60. ELSEWHERE, LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL
BE COMMON TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 111 PM SUNDAY...
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
* RAIN COULD START AS EARLY AS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MONDAY WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST WEAKENS OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST UP TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION, RAIN WILL HOLD OFF DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS
MAY REACH THE TRIAD VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN 6
HOUR PRECIP CHANCES, ONLY THE GEFS HAS RAIN CHANCES IN THE TRIAD
BEFORE 12Z, SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL 12Z.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 228 PM SUNDAY...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORT-WAVES WILL TRAVERSE OVERHEAD THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ADVECTING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THE STRONG UPPER FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
OUR AREA TUESDAY, SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AN ADVANCING FRONT, COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX WILL PROMOTE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A DIURNAL MAXIMA IN SHOWERS/TSTORM
COVERAGE WITH HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BULK-LAYER SHEAR WILL
GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARDS WITH TIME TUESDAY, BUT SOME AFTERNOON
LINGERING SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KTS COULD COINCIDE WITH THE DIURNAL
MAXIMA OF TSTORMS TO PROMOTE PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. THIS
IS APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER (THE CSU ML
PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN THIS
VICINITY).
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED, AS
THE SFC FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF US, STALLS, AND THE RIDES NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL TRAVERSE OVERHEAD EACH
DAY, PROMOTING CONTINUED DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF
MODERATELY STRONGER SHEAR MOVES OVER. OTHERWISE, SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AS THE NEXT TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, A BIT BETTER
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING MAY EXTEND SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS SUCH, SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE (GEPS/GEFS/ENS) RUN TOTAL PRECIPITATION FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY INDICATES ANYWHERE FROM A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH (10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE) TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
(75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE). WPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS ANYWHERE FROM
0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. AS SUCH, FOR NOW, NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED WITH ANY FLOODING THREATS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM OVER THIS PERIOD, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S, WITH PERHAPS SOME RELATIVE REPRIEVE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 730 PM SUNDAY...
TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT RWI. AT MOST TERMINALS, EXPECT BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND, THEN GUSTY WINDS PICKING UP MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. MEANWHILE, AT RWI, WHERE A BACK-
DOOR FRONT IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA, THINK THAT THERE SHOULD
BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT - AND SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE 18 KT IN THE TAF MAY NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH. EVENTUALLY THE GUSTS SETTLE DOWN OVERNIGHT AND CEILING
RESTRICTIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED
THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
RWI, AND WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS, HAVE MADE THESE
CONDITIONS A TEMPO GROUP INSTEAD OF A PREVAILING GROUP. BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING, THE FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT
SIMILAR TO OTHER TERMINALS. WITH RDU, THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS ARE
UNLIKELY THERE, BUT STILL THINK THAT THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND GUSTS
FROM THE BACK-DOOR FRONT REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE INHERITED
TEMPO GROUP, ALTHOUGH CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK: A FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
NC, WITH AN ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS,
TUE-FRI.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 20:
KGSO: 65/1941
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 69/2011
APRIL 21:
KGSO: 64/1927
KRDU: 70/1896
KFAY: 68/2017
APRIL 22:
KGSO: 63/1967
KRDU: 66/1909
KFAY: 64/1963
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS/BLAES
NEAR TERM...LEINS
SHORT TERM...HELOCK
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...GREEN/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH
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