547
FXUS62 KRAH 210700
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN NC WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT TODAY. A SLOW-MOVING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND STALL ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...
* CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM
ALOFT, THE S/W (OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS OF 06Z) WILL LIFT NWD
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND SRN ONTARIO, CANADA, WHILE THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETTING UP THIS EVE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS FROM
THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER SE CANADA TONIGHT, WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND NRN MID-
ATLANTIC. THE WEATHER SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT,
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT EARLY TUE MORN. WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFT/EARLY EVE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
15-20 MPH RANGE, HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 111 PM SUNDAY...
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
* RAIN COULD START AS EARLY AS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MONDAY WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST WEAKENS OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO GUST UP TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION, RAIN WILL HOLD OFF DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. SHOWERS
MAY REACH THE TRIAD VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN 6
HOUR PRECIP CHANCES, ONLY THE GEFS HAS RAIN CHANCES IN THE TRIAD
BEFORE 12Z, SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL 12Z.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 228 PM SUNDAY...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES
OF WEAK SHORT-WAVES WILL TRAVERSE OVERHEAD THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ADVECTING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THE STRONG UPPER FORCING WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
OUR AREA TUESDAY, SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG AN ADVANCING FRONT, COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX WILL PROMOTE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NC. EXPECT A DIURNAL MAXIMA IN SHOWERS/TSTORM
COVERAGE WITH HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BULK-LAYER SHEAR WILL
GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARDS WITH TIME TUESDAY, BUT SOME AFTERNOON
LINGERING SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KTS COULD COINCIDE WITH THE DIURNAL
MAXIMA OF TSTORMS TO PROMOTE PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. THIS
IS APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER (THE CSU ML
PRODUCT HIGHLIGHTS LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN THIS
VICINITY).
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED, AS
THE SFC FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF US, STALLS, AND THE RIDES NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT BY FRIDAY. WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL TRAVERSE OVERHEAD EACH
DAY, PROMOTING CONTINUED DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY. A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF
MODERATELY STRONGER SHEAR MOVES OVER. OTHERWISE, SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AS THE NEXT TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, A BIT BETTER
SHEAR/UPPER FORCING MAY EXTEND SOUTH OVER CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS SUCH, SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE (GEPS/GEFS/ENS) RUN TOTAL PRECIPITATION FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY INDICATES ANYWHERE FROM A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH (10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE) TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
(75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE). WPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS ANYWHERE FROM
0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD. AS SUCH, FOR NOW, NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED WITH ANY FLOODING THREATS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM OVER THIS PERIOD, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S, WITH PERHAPS SOME RELATIVE REPRIEVE INTO THE UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 215 AM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,
WITH BROKEN HIGH CIGS BECOMING SCATTERED TODAY. THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP NE OF KRWI AND SPREAD TOWARD THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z, BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FAVORING THE
CIGS STAYING NE OF THE TERMINAL. SSWLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE
THIS MORNING TO 8-12 KTS, WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTS IN THE 16-20 KT
RANGE THIS AFT/EARLY EVE. THERE COULD BE SOME BORDERLINE LLWS
TONIGHT AS A LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 30-35 KTS AS IT PASSES OVER CENTRAL
NC.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
TUE-FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE AREA.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 20:
KGSO: 65/1941
KRDU: 67/1896
KFAY: 69/2011
APRIL 21:
KGSO: 64/1927
KRDU: 70/1896
KFAY: 68/2017
APRIL 22:
KGSO: 63/1967
KRDU: 66/1909
KFAY: 64/1963
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS/BLAES
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...HELOCK
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH
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