150
FXUS62 KRAH 211542
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1142 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD ACROSS VA TODAY. A SLOW-MOVING
AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1140 AM MONDAY...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND RATIONALE ARE ON TRACK; AND NO APPRECIABLE
GRIDDED FORECAST CHANGES WERE NEEDED AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT, WHICH HAD OVERNIGHT SETTLED INTO THE NRN COASTAL
PLAIN, HAS RETREATED NWD IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND OUT OF NRN
HALIFAX AND WARREN CO. ALL OF CNTL NC WILL CONSEQUENTLY REMAIN IN
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM, WARM SECTOR TODAY, WITH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES CENTERED IN THE MID 80S.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 300 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025/
* CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM
ALOFT, THE S/W (OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS OF 06Z) WILL LIFT NWD
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND SRN ONTARIO, CANADA, WHILE THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETTING UP THIS EVE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS FROM
THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER SE CANADA TONIGHT, WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND NRN MID-
ATLANTIC. THE WEATHER SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT,
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT EARLY TUE MORN. WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFT/EARLY EVE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
15-20 MPH RANGE, HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
...MARGINAL/LEVEL 1 THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...
A SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A PLUME OF MOIST PWATS OF 1-
5-1.6"(90-95TH PERCENTILE)WILL BECOME DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC.
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST/NORTHWEST DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS, WITH FURTHER BLOSSOMING OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE BUOYANCY OF MLCAPE UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG,
MAXIMIZED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALBEMARLE TO
RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. THE 0-3KM SHEAR IS NOT THE MOST
FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF ~35KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE CELLS. DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES OVER THE
AREA.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NC.
HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 70S NW TO MID/UPPER 80S SE. LOWS IN THE
60S, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S ALONG THE VA BORDER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
- A SLOW-MOVING AND MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. FOLLOWED
BY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY NOT CLEARING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BRIEFLY STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE
RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP EAST
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE, FEATURING PWATS OF 1.5-1.6" (IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE), WILL STICK AROUND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD. IT WILL FEEL LIKE A CLASSIC SUMMER-TIME SETUP,
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY-FRIDAY WILL LINE UP WITH A)POSITION/LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE; 2) WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION; 3) DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. CURRENTLY,
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS, WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, THE
DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS
SLIGHTLY TEMPERED AND SUPPORT MILD/WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR THE START OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,
WITH BROKEN HIGH CIGS BECOMING SCATTERED TODAY. THE MVFR CIGS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF KRWI COULD STILL SPREAD TOWARD THE TERMINAL, BUT
THE TREND HAS BEEN FAVORING THE CIGS STAYING NE OF THE TERMINAL.
SSWLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING TO 8-12 KTS, WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTS IN THE 16-20 KT RANGE THIS AFT/EARLY EVE. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THERE COULD BE SOME BORDERLINE LLWS TONIGHT
(MAINLY FROM KRDU NORTHEAST) AS A LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 30-35 KTS AS IT
PASSES OVER CENTRAL NC. SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE NW (KINT/KGSO)
BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT BETTER CHANCE IS AFTER 12Z
TUE.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
TUE-FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
THE AREA.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 21:
KGSO: 64/1927
KRDU: 70/1896
KFAY: 68/2017
APRIL 22:
KGSO: 63/1967
KRDU: 66/1909
KFAY: 64/1963
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS/BLAES
NEAR TERM...MWS/KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH
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