765
FXUS62 KRAH 211809
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
208 PM EDT MON APR 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD ACROSS VA TODAY. A SLOW-MOVING
AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1140 AM MONDAY...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND RATIONALE ARE ON TRACK; AND NO APPRECIABLE
GRIDDED FORECAST CHANGES WERE NEEDED AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT, WHICH HAD OVERNIGHT SETTLED INTO THE NRN COASTAL
PLAIN, HAS RETREATED NWD IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO AND OUT OF NRN
HALIFAX AND WARREN CO. ALL OF CNTL NC WILL CONSEQUENTLY REMAIN IN
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM, WARM SECTOR TODAY, WITH PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES CENTERED IN THE MID 80S.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 300 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025/
* CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM
ALOFT, THE S/W (OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS OF 06Z) WILL LIFT NWD
ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND SRN ONTARIO, CANADA, WHILE THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SETTING UP THIS EVE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS FROM
THE WEST. THE PARENT LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER SE CANADA TONIGHT, WITH
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND NRN MID-
ATLANTIC. THE WEATHER SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT,
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT EARLY TUE MORN. WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFT/EARLY EVE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE
15-20 MPH RANGE, HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 206 PM MONDAY...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLUDGE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. A SERIES
OF MCVS/PERTURBATIONS WILL TRAVERSE OVERHEAD AND WILL COMBINE WITH
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, ANYWHERE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. RAIN
EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERY IN NATURE, BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV TRAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND AS SUCH, EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER WISE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ~35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS SUCH, A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. FORECASTED HODOGRAPHS SHOW
SIGNS OF SOME ELONGATION IN THE VICINITY OF ALBEMARLE NORTHEAST
THROUGH RALEIGH/DURHAM TO ROANOKE RAPIDS (LATEST RUNS OF THE HREF
DEPICT A CLUSTERING OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL HELICITY SWATH MAXIMA IN
THIS VICINITY AS WELL). LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS IMAGINARY
LINE WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM. PRIMARILY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL. THE STP
PARAMETER IS NEAR ZERO FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA INDICATING LITTLE TO NO
TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A STRONG SEA BREEZE
AT THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY PENETRATE INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF LOCALLY ENHANCED UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY IN WHICH CASE A QUICK SPIN UP AND/OR LARGER HAIL COULD
BE POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LARGELY WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER,
SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON CONTINUING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AS SUCH, CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER
ISOLATED CELL OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER MCVS TRICKLE
OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, THE HREF LPMM FIELD DOES INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT IN THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL
PLAIN VICINITY. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING BY ANY
MEANS, BUT ISOLATED URBAN AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS OF 330 AM MONDAY...
- A SLOW-MOVING AND MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. FOLLOWED
BY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY NOT CLEARING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BRIEFLY STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE
RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP EAST
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY.
HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE, FEATURING PWATS OF 1.5-1.6" (IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE), WILL STICK AROUND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD. IT WILL FEEL LIKE A CLASSIC SUMMER-TIME SETUP,
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY-FRIDAY WILL LINE UP WITH A)POSITION/LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE; 2) WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION; 3) DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. CURRENTLY,
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK LIKE THE WETTEST DAYS, WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER HIGH CHANCE OF
RAIN.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, THE
DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS
SLIGHTLY TEMPERED AND SUPPORT MILD/WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR THE START OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...
* MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AT INT/GSO BETWEEN 12-18Z TUE.
A SSWLY BREEZE WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED UNTIL A
A COUPLE OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES, SHOWERS, AND RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW
OVERSPREAD THE NC PIEDMONT ON TUE. NEAR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM RDU TO ESPECIALLY POINTS NEWD
ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT-TUE MORNING.
OUTLOOK: A SYNOPTIC FRONT AND PRECEDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE
FRONT WILL WAVER OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEK, WITH AN ASSOCIATED
CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAXIMIZED EACH
AFTERNOON-EVENING, AND ALSO A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING IFR-
MVFR CEILINGS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 21:
KGSO: 64/1927
KRDU: 70/1896
KFAY: 68/2017
APRIL 22:
KGSO: 63/1967
KRDU: 66/1909
KFAY: 64/1963
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS/BLAES
NEAR TERM...MWS/KC
SHORT TERM...LUCHETTI
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...RAH
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