883
FXUS62 KRAH 220605
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY, THEN LIKELY
STALL AND WASH OUT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF NC THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 922 PM MONDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM WITH LOWS NEAR THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM DAILY
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
SHOWERS WERE WEAKENING AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST OVER
EASTERN TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN VA AT MID-EVENING. THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, EXTENDING FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO TN. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FOOTHILLS
WHERE SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WAS NOTED. HOWEVER,
INSTABILITY IS LACKING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
DISSIPATE TO OUR WEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATER TONIGHT, SOME OF
THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME RENEWED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THESE MAY APPROACH THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND VARIABLY CLOUDY. A LIGHT SW
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S, AS THE
APRIL WARMTH CONTINUES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 206 PM MONDAY...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLUDGE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. A SERIES
OF MCVS/PERTURBATIONS WILL TRAVERSE OVERHEAD AND WILL COMBINE WITH
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, ANYWHERE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. RAIN
EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERY IN NATURE, BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV TRAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND AS SUCH, EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER WISE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ~35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS SUCH, A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. FORECASTED HODOGRAPHS SHOW
SIGNS OF SOME ELONGATION IN THE VICINITY OF ALBEMARLE NORTHEAST
THROUGH RALEIGH/DURHAM TO ROANOKE RAPIDS (LATEST RUNS OF THE HREF
DEPICT A CLUSTERING OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL HELICITY SWATH MAXIMA IN
THIS VICINITY AS WELL). LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS IMAGINARY
LINE WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM. PRIMARILY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL. THE STP
PARAMETER IS NEAR ZERO FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA INDICATING LITTLE TO NO
TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A STRONG SEA BREEZE
AT THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY PENETRATE INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF LOCALLY ENHANCED UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY IN WHICH CASE A QUICK SPIN UP AND/OR LARGER HAIL COULD
BE POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LARGELY WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER,
SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON CONTINUING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AS SUCH, CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER
ISOLATED CELL OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER MCVS TRICKLE
OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, THE HREF LPMM FIELD DOES INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT IN THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL
PLAIN VICINITY. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING BY ANY
MEANS, BUT ISOLATED URBAN AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 220 PM MONDAY...
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY STAY IN THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY DUE TO A STALLING FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND STAY TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT. EACH DAY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINES UP WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW. THUS, RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S NIGHTLY.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT,
DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
LOWS DROPPING TO AROUND 50. MONDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z WED. A 30-40 KT LLJ PASSING OVER THE AREA MAY
RESULT IN SOME BORDERLINE LLWS CRITERIA AT THE NRN TERMINALS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. SSWLY WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS MORNING, BECOMING VARIABLE ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY WITH
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFT/EVE AND SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK: A SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL WAVER OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEK,
WITH AN ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
MAXIMIZED EACH AFTERNOON-EVENING, AND ALSO A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT-
EARLY MORNING IFR-MVFR CEILINGS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 22:
KGSO: 63/1967
KRDU: 66/1909
KFAY: 64/1963
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/MWS
SHORT TERM...LUCHETTI
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...KC/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH
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