436
FXUS62 KRAH 220707
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
205 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY, THEN LIKELY
STALL AND WASH OUT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF NC THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 206 PM MONDAY...
A SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLUDGE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. A SERIES
OF MCVS/PERTURBATIONS WILL TRAVERSE OVERHEAD AND WILL COMBINE WITH
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, ANYWHERE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. RAIN
EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SHOWERY IN NATURE, BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MCV TRAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AND AS SUCH, EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER WISE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ~35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS SUCH, A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. FORECASTED HODOGRAPHS SHOW
SIGNS OF SOME ELONGATION IN THE VICINITY OF ALBEMARLE NORTHEAST
THROUGH RALEIGH/DURHAM TO ROANOKE RAPIDS (LATEST RUNS OF THE HREF
DEPICT A CLUSTERING OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL HELICITY SWATH MAXIMA IN
THIS VICINITY AS WELL). LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS IMAGINARY
LINE WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM. PRIMARILY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER STORM WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL. THE STP
PARAMETER IS NEAR ZERO FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA INDICATING LITTLE TO NO
TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A STRONG SEA BREEZE
AT THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY PENETRATE INTO OUR SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS SUCH, WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF LOCALLY ENHANCED UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY IN WHICH CASE A QUICK SPIN UP AND/OR LARGER HAIL COULD
BE POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LARGELY WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER,
SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE BULLISH ON CONTINUING
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WHILE MAINTAINING AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AS SUCH, CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONGER
ISOLATED CELL OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER MCVS TRICKLE
OVERHEAD. ADDITIONALLY, THE HREF LPMM FIELD DOES INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT IN THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL
PLAIN VICINITY. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING BY ANY
MEANS, BUT ISOLATED URBAN AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE SC-NC STATE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO START THE DAY. THEN AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AND AS
WEAK, CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED UPPER IMPULSES POTENTIALLY BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS( 1.5-1.6"/90TH
PERCENTILE) POOLING ALONG THE FRONT, CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HWY 64. HOWEVER, FORECAST SPREAD IS UNUSUALLY HIGH WRT TO POPS AND
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, RANGING FROM AS LITTLE AS ISOLATED/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE SOME OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS SHOW
WIDESPREAD/CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 64. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT MODEL ITERATION OR TWO. FOR
NOW, GIVEN THE MOIST PWATS IN PLACE, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WETTER
SOLUTIONS, WITH RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER.
BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN TODAY.
THUS, SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRIEFLY STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY.
WHILE SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA, PWATS OF 1.4-1.5" WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THE MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT A DAILY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH POPS
MAXIMIZED DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND COINCIDENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WHILE DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
HIGHS SLIGHTLY TEMPERED, TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ESPECIALLY WARM NIGHTS. THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR THE START OF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z WED. A 30-40 KT LLJ PASSING OVER THE AREA MAY
RESULT IN SOME BORDERLINE LLWS CRITERIA AT THE NRN TERMINALS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. SSWLY WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS MORNING, BECOMING VARIABLE ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY WITH
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFT/EVE AND SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK: A SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL WAVER OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEK,
WITH AN ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
MAXIMIZED EACH AFTERNOON-EVENING, AND ALSO A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT-
EARLY MORNING IFR-MVFR CEILINGS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 22:
KGSO: 63/1967
KRDU: 66/1909
KFAY: 64/1963
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS
NEAR TERM...LUCHETTI
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page