992
FXUS62 KRAH 220753
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY, THEN LIKELY
STALL AND WASH OUT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF NC THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...
* MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ALOFT, AS THE NRN STREAM S/W TRACKS EWD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND
THE NORTHEAST US A SRN STREAM S/W WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS, FURTHER SUPPRESSING
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL PV
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM LATE THIS AFT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, AT 06Z THE FRONT WAS STILL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS,
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW-NE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NC.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING, SHIFTING EWD ACROSS
THE AREA WITH AN AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. THE SYNOPTIC FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE WSW-ENE ORIENTED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA THIS
EVE. THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SWD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES: WHILE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL EARLY
SHOWERS/STORMS (ESPECIALLY WEST), STILL EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO
GENERALLY RANGE FROM MID/UPR 70S NW TO MID 80S SE. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
CONVECTION: FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE HRRR AND RAP
SHOW MUCAPE OF 300-800 J/KG WITH ~30 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS
CENTRAL NC, WHILE THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE TRIAD, WITH 800-1200 J/KG AT KRDU, KFAY AND KRWI THIS
AFT/EVE, WITH 30-40 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR. EXPECT MORE FAVORABLE
DIURNAL TIMING, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND MOIST, WITH TEMPS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEG, WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH/EFFECTIVE FRONT
AND THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
CONVECTION. THE SPC HAS KEPT CENTRAL NC IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
TODAY, WITH ISOLATED STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFT/EVE. CONVECTION AND MORESO THE THREAT OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH IT, SHOULD WANE LATE THIS EVE/TONIGHT,
HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT SLIDES SWD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE SC-NC STATE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO START THE DAY. THEN AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES AND AS
WEAK, CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED UPPER IMPULSES POTENTIALLY BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE PLUME OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS( 1.5-1.6"/90TH
PERCENTILE) POOLING ALONG THE FRONT, CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HWY 64. HOWEVER, FORECAST SPREAD IS UNUSUALLY HIGH WRT TO POPS AND
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, RANGING FROM AS LITTLE AS ISOLATED/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE SOME OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS SHOW
WIDESPREAD/CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 64. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS OVER THE NEXT MODEL ITERATION OR TWO. FOR
NOW, GIVEN THE MOIST PWATS IN PLACE, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WETTER
SOLUTIONS, WITH RAIN CHANCES RANGING FROM CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTH. ANY RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER.
BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN TODAY.
THUS, SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS
RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS OF 305 AM MONDAY...
- DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRIEFLY STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY.
WHILE SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA, PWATS OF 1.4-1.5" WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THE MEANDERING FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT A DAILY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH POPS
MAXIMIZED DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND COINCIDENT WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WHILE DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP
HIGHS SLIGHTLY TEMPERED, TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ESPECIALLY WARM NIGHTS. THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR THE START OF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING AROUND 06Z WED. A 30-40 KT LLJ PASSING OVER THE AREA MAY
RESULT IN SOME BORDERLINE LLWS CRITERIA AT THE NRN TERMINALS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. SSWLY WINDS IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS MORNING, BECOMING VARIABLE ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY WITH
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFT/EVE AND SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK: A SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL WAVER OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEK,
WITH AN ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
MAXIMIZED EACH AFTERNOON-EVENING, AND ALSO A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT-
EARLY MORNING IFR-MVFR CEILINGS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 22:
KGSO: 63/1967
KRDU: 66/1909
KFAY: 64/1963
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH
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