503
FXUS62 KRAH 230027
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
826 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE SAVANNAH BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE BUILD ACROSS AND
OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 826 PM TUESDAY...
CONVECTION HAS REALLY WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED IN THE LAST HOUR OR
TWO. THE COMBINATION OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER STORMS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING
FACTORS IN THE WEAKENING TREND OF STORMS. THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EASTERN
SANDHILLS, WITH THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY COLLIDING WITH THE
OUTFLOW. CONVECTION WAS LARGELY LOCATED OVER THE SANDHILLS TO
COASTAL PLAIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE COLD FRONT IS LOOSELY
DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST, ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL VA, WITH
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. HAD TO ADJUST POPS
QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE CAMS WERE ABOUT 2-3 HOURS SLOW COMPARED TO
REALITY. A FEW MORE HOURS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SANDHILLS TO CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OUTSIDE OF
THAT WE SHOULD TURN VERY QUIET WITH LIMITED SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH
LATE EVENING TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STABILITY BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHING TOWARD EASTERN NC. SOME OF THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST, AFFECTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE. THE FAVORED AREAS MAY END UP BEING THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE. BUT GIVEN
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND THE CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS OVERNIGHT, IN
WHICH ISOLATED STORMS COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY
DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD. THOUGH THE
SIGNAL IS NOT VERY STRONG IN THE GUIDANCE, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FOG, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US-64 AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING FRONT. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S N AND W TO THE
LOW TO MID 60S IN THE SE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT. PWATS ARE STILL SHOWING VALUES AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION, THEREFORE AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON, CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING IS TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE
GREATEST FORCING FROM THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. CAMS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION, SO KEPT THE
REGION IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS, WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITIES TO THE SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS BEING
SEVERE IS CURRENTLY LOW AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAK.
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD FROPA, HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, OR IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
* SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EVERYDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STAY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINES UP
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW. THUS,
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING, AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S NIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD BOTH WARM AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 815 PM TUESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A SHOWER. OTHERWISE, A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND FOLLOWING NE FLOW WILL THEN RESULT IN A CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: NE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS
OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH FRI, WITH A CHANCE OF IFR ONES
DURING THE MORNING THU AND FRI. THE NELY FLOW WILL ALSO SHIFT
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SOUTH TO MAINLY FAY WED-THU, THEN AREA-WIDE
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRI-SAT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 22:
KGSO: 63/1967
KRDU: 66/1909
KFAY: 64/1963
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREN/MWS
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...HELOCK
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...PWB/MWS
CLIMATE...RAH
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