708
FXUS62 KRAH 230606
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
206 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE SAVANNAH BASIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE BUILD ACROSS
AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 826 PM TUESDAY...
CONVECTION HAS REALLY WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED IN THE LAST HOUR OR
TWO. THE COMBINATION OF THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING OUTFLOW FROM
EARLIER STORMS AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING
FACTORS IN THE WEAKENING TREND OF STORMS. THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EASTERN
SANDHILLS, WITH THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY COLLIDING WITH THE
OUTFLOW. CONVECTION WAS LARGELY LOCATED OVER THE SANDHILLS TO
COASTAL PLAIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE COLD FRONT IS LOOSELY
DRAPED TO OUR NORTHWEST, ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL VA, WITH
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY. HAD TO ADJUST POPS
QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE CAMS WERE ABOUT 2-3 HOURS SLOW COMPARED TO
REALITY. A FEW MORE HOURS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SANDHILLS TO CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN, BUT OUTSIDE OF
THAT WE SHOULD TURN VERY QUIET WITH LIMITED SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH
LATE EVENING TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH STABILITY BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW AND MID-LEVEL ENERGY PUSHING TOWARD EASTERN NC. SOME OF THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
FROM THE NORTH AND EAST, AFFECTING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
TRIANGLE. THE FAVORED AREAS MAY END UP BEING THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
COASTAL PLAIN, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE. BUT GIVEN
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND THE CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THIS
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. HAVE LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS OVERNIGHT, IN
WHICH ISOLATED STORMS COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY
DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD. THOUGH THE
SIGNAL IS NOT VERY STRONG IN THE GUIDANCE, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FOG, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US-64 AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD
MOVING FRONT. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S N AND W TO THE
LOW TO MID 60S IN THE SE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH. THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT. PWATS ARE STILL SHOWING VALUES AROUND 1.4-1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION, THEREFORE AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON, CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOPING IS TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE
GREATEST FORCING FROM THE STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. CAMS ARE
SHOWING VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION, SO KEPT THE
REGION IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS, WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITIES TO THE SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS BEING
SEVERE IS CURRENTLY LOW AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAK.
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COLD FROPA, HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, OR IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...
* SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EVERYDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STAY STALLED TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINES UP
WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW. THUS,
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING, AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN
THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. THE WARMEST DAY SHOULD BE ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S NIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD BOTH WARM AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: WIDELY SCT SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INVOF KFAY AND
KRWI FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THUNDER NOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF KRWI. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP BELOW VFR IF A
SHOWER MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WRT IF AND HOW LOW
VSBYS/CIGS WILL DROP AT ANY OF THE 5 TERMINALS, HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AT ALL OF THEM. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND WHERE CONVECTION OCCURRED ON TUE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR VSBYS, WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS ALREADY MATERIALIZING
FROM VUJ TO HRJ. KINT AND KGSO COULD GO IFR/LIFR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THEY COULD ALSO REMAIN
VFR/MVFR AND/OR DIFFER FROM ONE ANOTHER. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO
WED MORNING AT THE EASTERN SITES, BUT THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AT ALL SITES TROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
THU OR SO. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WED AFT/EVE WILL BE AT
KFAY, POSSIBLY STRETCHING NWD TO KRDU AND KRWI.
OUTLOOK: NELY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THU AND FRI. THE NELY
FLOW WILL ALSO SHIFT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SOUTH TO MAINLY FAY ON
THU, THEN AREA-WIDE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRI-SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREN/MWS
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...HELOCK
LONG TERM...HELOCK
AVIATION...KC/MWS
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