203
FXUS62 KRAH 230734
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
334 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THE
FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE SAVANNAH BASIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL OTHERWISE BUILD ACROSS
AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...
ALOFT, WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN OTHERWISE SWLY FLOW WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SWD INTO CENTRAL NC TODAY, STALLING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STALLED BOUNDARY (AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF IT IN THE WARM SECTOR) WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFT/EVE, WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG,
ALBEIT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH AN INCH OR LESS TO
THE NORTH. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND, EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR,
WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WPC DOES HAVE CENTRAL NC
IN A MARGINAL ERO FOR TODAY, BUT IMPACTS WOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED TO
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM MID
70S NE TO LOW 80S SOUTH, AND LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES NE TO
LOW 60S SW.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
A STALLED SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDGES SE
INTO CENTRAL NC. MODEST DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE RESIDUAL MOIST
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE (PWATS BETWEEN 1.4-1.5"-90TH PERCENTILE),
POTENTIALLY AIDED BY SOME WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT, WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NC. GIVEN BOTH WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR DRIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THUS, CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT.
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF
STINT OF COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND/
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO THE MS
VALLEY, DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK DESTABLIZATION WITHIN THE CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD YIELD MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS, AND PERHAPS A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT AS BELT OF ENHANCED
SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS CLIPS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE TWO DAYS, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A
BRIEF STINT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND NOTICEABLY DRIER/LESS HUMID
AIR SUNDAY-MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 205 AM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: WIDELY SCT SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER INVOF KFAY AND
KRWI FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THUNDER NOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF KRWI. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DIP BELOW VFR IF A
SHOWER MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WRT IF AND HOW LOW
VSBYS/CIGS WILL DROP AT ANY OF THE 5 TERMINALS, HOWEVER A PERIOD OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AT ALL OF THEM. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND WHERE CONVECTION OCCURRED ON TUE HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR VSBYS, WITH IFR-LIFR VSBYS ALREADY MATERIALIZING
FROM VUJ TO HRJ. KINT AND KGSO COULD GO IFR/LIFR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF/ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT THEY COULD ALSO REMAIN
VFR/MVFR AND/OR DIFFER FROM ONE ANOTHER. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO
WED MORNING AT THE EASTERN SITES, BUT THEN EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION AT ALL SITES TROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT
THU OR SO. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WED AFT/EVE WILL BE AT
KFAY, POSSIBLY STRETCHING NWD TO KRDU AND KRWI.
OUTLOOK: NELY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THU AND FRI. THE NELY
FLOW WILL ALSO SHIFT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SOUTH TO MAINLY FAY ON
THU, THEN AREA-WIDE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRI-SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREN/MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC/MWS
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