586
FXUS62 KRAH 231430
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND
WEAKEN, AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH, MOVING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY, PUTTING US BACK IN A WARM AND HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...
JUST MINOR FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING, INCLUDING A DOWNWARD
BUMP TO POPS ACROSS THE N AND AN UPWARD BUMP OF HIGH TEMPS TODAY.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS ANALYZED ROUGHLY W TO E ACROSS FAR N NC,
SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S FROM VALUES IN THE 30S/40S TO
ITS N, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK EASTWARD-DRIFTING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL MD. A SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW OVER E NC ATTENDING A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MOVING OFFSHORE, AND WHILE A MID
LEVEL PERTURBATION UPSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL SC,
SKIMMING OUR S BORDER COUNTIES, THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA IS DRY,
WITH PWS AOA 1" RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG AND S OF HWY 64. AS THE
SURFACE FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY S THROUGH TONIGHT (PROPELLED IN PART BY
THE EXIT OF THIS WAVE TRACKING ALONG OUR S), THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY HELD TO OUR S AND SE SECTIONS
FROM THE TRIANGLE S AND E, WITHIN EXPECTED MARGINAL TO MODERATE
SBCAPE AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS. AS
SUCH, HAVE MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TRIM BACK POPS ACROSS THE NW AND FAR
N, LEAVING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR S AND SE INTO TONIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY,
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS IS THIN, ALLOWING DECENT INSOLATION WITH TEMPS
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE. BASED ON THIS PACE,
HAVE ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO TO DAYTIME HIGHS, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. -GIH
EARLIER DISCUSSION FROM 330 AM: ALOFT, WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN
OTHERWISE SWLY FLOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD INTO CENTRAL
NC TODAY, STALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
STALLED BOUNDARY (AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF IT IN THE WARM SECTOR) WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE, WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG, ALBEIT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR.
PWATS OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, WITH AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE
IN MIND, EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE US-1 CORRIDOR, WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE WPC DOES HAVE CENTRAL NC IN A MARGINAL ERO FOR TODAY, BUT
IMPACTS WOULD LARGELY BE LIMITED TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM MID 70S NE TO LOW 80S
SOUTH, AND LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES NE TO LOW 60S SW.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
A STALLED SFC FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDGES SE
INTO CENTRAL NC. MODEST DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE RESIDUAL MOIST
AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE (PWATS BETWEEN 1.4-1.5"-90TH PERCENTILE),
POTENTIALLY AIDED BY SOME WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT, WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NC. GIVEN BOTH WEAK INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR DRIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THUS, CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT.
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF
STINT OF COOLER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND/
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO THE MS
VALLEY, DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK DESTABLIZATION WITHIN THE CONTINUED
MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD YIELD MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS, AND PERHAPS A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT AS BELT OF ENHANCED
SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS CLIPS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE TWO DAYS, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL BRING A
BRIEF STINT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND NOTICEABLY DRIER/LESS HUMID
AIR SUNDAY-MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY
NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 655 AM WEDNESDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VSBYS COULD BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND IFR AT ANY OF
THE 5 TERMINALS THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND WHERE CONVECTION OCCURRED
ON TUE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING,
AND REMAIN VFR, OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFT/EVE WILL BE AT KFAY AND KRWI, BUT
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. IFR-MVFR
CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH IFR MOST
LIKELY AT KFAY.
OUTLOOK: NELY FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING INTO THU MORN AND AGAIN THU
NIGHT/FRI MORN. THE NELY FLOW WILL ALSO SHIFT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
SOUTH, TO MAINLY FAY ON THU EVE, THEN AREA-WIDE AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRI-SAT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/KC
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KC/MWS
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