555
FXUS62 KRAH 232339
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
735 PM EDT WED APR 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THEN OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
FRIDAY, PUTTING US BACK IN A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. BASED ON OBSERVED SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AND THETA-E, THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY STRETCHES ROUGHLY SW-NE
THROUGH CENTRAL NC, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TO ITS NW
AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S TO ITS SE. THIS FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
SINK VERY SLOWLY TO THE S THEN STALL WHILE PIVOTING CLOCKWISE, AS
THE WEAK HIGH CENTERED TO OUR N TRACKS E OVER AND OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE THE LATEST RAP-BASED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVER
OUR AREA IS LOW, AT JUST 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA AND LOWER
TO THE N AND W, AREAS FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE S AND E ARE WITHIN
500-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, WITH PWS OF 1-1.25", WHICH IS ABOUT 125-
150% OF NORMAL. SO DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MLCINH AND POOR DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR, POPS WILL REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS OUR FAR S AND SE
THROUGH THE EVENING, BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO OUR SW
OVERNIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW LEVEL ESE/SE FLOW RESULTS IN TERRAIN
UPGLIDE AND A POOLING OF BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE S PIEDMONT. PRECIP
SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH SLOW
STORM MOTION AND POSSIBLE BACK-BUILDING LEADING TO ISOLATED POCKETS
OF HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE SHOULD THEN SEE MORE ISENTROPIC-LIFT-
DRIVEN PRECIP TONIGHT IN OUR SW AND FAR W, WHERE LOW BKN-OVC CLOUDS
ARE APT TO DEVELOP LATE NEAR AND S OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN AN
AREA OF LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND HIGH 100 M MIXING RATIO. AFTER
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S EXCEPT 50-55 IN THE NE, IN THE AXIS OF THE
OUTGOING SURFACE RIDGE. -GIH
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
* SEASONABLY MILD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
UNDER WEAKLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND SUBTLY PERTURBED FLOW ALOFT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRI NIGHT. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BUCKLE NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NC THURS WITH A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN 500-1000
SBCAPE TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT
WHERE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK SHEAR (<20KTS) WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY PULSE STORM MODE AND LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION IS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT AS A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTMAX, CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY,
WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO SOME ISOLATED STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO
LOW 60S.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE WASHED OUT FRI AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLIPS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND UNIFORMLY SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE AREA. CONTINUED, WARM, MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS LOW/MID 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...
-SHOWER AND STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, THEN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE-NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING A LOW END THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AS CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 600-1200 J/KG AS
THE FRONT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE WE ARE NOT IN ANY SORT OF
SPC OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY, I WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY, DRY SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REFRESHING DEW POINTS IN THE
40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND 80S ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST WITH WAA ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW
WARMER SPOTS POSSIBLY HITTING 90 DEGREES. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT, AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 735 PM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. IFR
TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 12Z-14Z/THURSDAY. THE NE PART OF THE REGION
INCLUDING KRWI MAY NOT SEE THE LOW STRATUS AS THEY ARE UNDER HIGHER
PRESSURE. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR FROM KFAY TO KRDU
EASTWARD LATE MORNING THURSDAY. CIGS IN THE TRIAD SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT
TO MVFR. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
KINT AND POSSIBLY KGSO AREAS MID TO LATE DAY THURSDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z/FRIDAY: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER 04Z, LASTING THROUGH FRI
MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT INT/GSO, WHERE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, AND A LOWER CHANCE AT RDU/FAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SAT. DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BADGETT/HARTFIELD
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