216
FXUS62 KRAH 240638
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MOVES OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THEN OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY,
PUTTING US BACK IN A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 904 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE CONVECTION THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND PARTS OF JOHNSTON COUNTY HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED IN
THE LAST HOUR OR SO. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION DEVELOPED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS CLOSER TO THE NC COAST.
THE SURFACE FRONT, MEANWHILE, IS LOOSELY DEFINED, BUT MAINLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL NC. IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST,
STALLING TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE THERE. BASED ON SOME
GUIDANCE BUT MORE HEAVILY RELYING ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS, STILL
THINK ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE LATE EVENING,
MAINLY FOR AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS, AND POINTS
SOUTHWEST OF THE TRIANGLE. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THIS ALREADY WITH
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS NEAR 6 KFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF RALEIGH.
THIS REGION HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AND MAY
FEED ON SOME 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH FORCING
FROM THE WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT DUE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY POOLING OF MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE 925-850
MB FLOW SOUTHEASTERLY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT FAIRY DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. THE POOLING OF MOISTURE WILL FAVOR A GOOD CHANCE OF LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TRIAD, THOUGH FOG
APPEARS MINIMAL THUS FAR WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TEMPERED BY CLOUDS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S IN THIS AREA. LOWS SHOULD BE COOLER AND
MORE SEASONAL IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES, WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LESS
PREVALENT, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...
* SEASONABLY MILD WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
UNDER WEAKLY SOUTHWESTERLY AND SUBTLY PERTURBED FLOW ALOFT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRI NIGHT. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BUCKLE NORTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NC THURS WITH A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN 500-1000
SBCAPE TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT
WHERE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WEAK SHEAR (<20KTS) WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY PULSE STORM MODE AND LITTLE STORM ORGANIZATION IS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURS NIGHT AS A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTMAX, CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY,
WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THERE IS SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO SOME ISOLATED STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO
LOW 60S.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE WASHED OUT FRI AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SLIPS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND UNIFORMLY SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE AREA. CONTINUED, WARM, MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS MID 70S TO LOW
80S. LOWS LOW/MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
MORNING, REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY, AND
MOVING OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN THAN THEIR COUNTERPARTS, AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS VERY MUCH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY, AND
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN, BUT THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S, THEN
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP AGAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READING POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 120 AM THURSDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
IS FORECAST STALL OUT ACROSS SC LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR INTO NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT. THIS
DRIER AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INHIBIT ANY SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS
AT KRWI AND KRDU. HOWEVER, AT KFAY, KGSO AND KINT, A MOIST SELY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FIRST AT KFAY ~06Z AND THEN
INT/GSO ~ 08Z, POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO LIFR BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK.
THE SUB-VFR CEILINGS AT KFAY SHOULD LIFT AND SCOUR OUT BETWEEN BY
MID MORNING. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO, LIFTING BETWEEN 16 TO 18Z.
A MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HIGH WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORM MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS(KINT AND KGSO) DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z/FRIDAY: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER 04Z, LASTING THROUGH FRI
MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT INT/GSO, WHERE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, AND A LOWER CHANCE AT RDU/FAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SAT. DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...CBL/HARTFIELD
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