312
FXUS62 KRAH 240701
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THEN
OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY, PUTTING US BACK IN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
IS FORECAST STALL OUT ACROSS SC LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN AND
INTO THE EASTERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT.
SELY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL
ADVECT LOW-CEILINGS/STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS STRATUS LAYER WILL SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING, POTENTIALLY LINGERING ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH MIDDAY. THEREAFTER, MODEST DAYTIME HEATING
WITHIN THIS RESIDUAL MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE (PWATS BETWEEN 1.4-
1.5"-90TH PERCENTILE) WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE NEARBY UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PIEDMONT. GIVEN BOTH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS 76-81,
WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DARK, WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A BATCH OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS WILL
RE-DEVELOP ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
TONIGHT(CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER AIR). LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S, COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA WILL
EITHER WASH OUT OR LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY, PLACING
ALL CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALLOWING THE PLUME OF 1.4-1.5"
PWAT TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF CENTRAL NC FRIDAY. DIURNAL HEATING AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREA-WIDE, WITH STORMS REMAINING SUB-SEVERE. HIGHS AGAIN
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, WARM ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS 30-40 METER
HEIGHT FALLS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
LOWS 60-65.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
MORNING, REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY, AND
MOVING OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN THAN THEIR COUNTERPARTS, AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS VERY MUCH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY, AND
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN, BUT THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S, THEN
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP AGAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READING POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 120 AM THURSDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
IS FORECAST STALL OUT ACROSS SC LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR INTO NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT. THIS
DRIER AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INHIBIT ANY SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS
AT KRWI AND KRDU. HOWEVER, AT KFAY, KGSO AND KINT, A MOIST SELY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FIRST AT KFAY ~06Z AND THEN
INT/GSO ~ 08Z, POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO LIFR BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK.
THE SUB-VFR CEILINGS AT KFAY SHOULD LIFT AND SCOUR OUT BETWEEN BY
MID MORNING. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS AT KINT AND KGSO, LIFTING BETWEEN 16 TO 18Z.
A MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HIGH WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORM MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS(KINT AND KGSO) DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z/FRIDAY: SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER 04Z, LASTING THROUGH FRI
MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT INT/GSO, WHERE SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, AND A LOWER CHANCE AT RDU/FAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, AHEAD OF AND
ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SAT. DRY/VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...CBL/HARTFIELD
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