027
FXUS62 KRAH 241311
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
911 AM EDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THEN
OFFSHORE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY, PUTTING US BACK IN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 910 AM THURSDAY...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS DRAPED ACROSS THE
NC/SC BORDER NEAR CHARLOTTE PRIMARILY BEING DRIVEN BY A REMNANT
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED DISTURBANCE FROM LAST NIGHT, AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 925MB. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE, LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING IN,
THE ONLY NOTABLE FORECAST ADJUSTMENT WAS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BY 1-
3 DEGREES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
OTHERWISE FORECAST REASONING AND RATIONALE REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY FOLLOWS.
LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SCOUR
OUT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING, POTENTIALLY LINGERING ACROSS
THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH MIDDAY. THEREAFTER, MODEST DAYTIME HEATING
WITHIN THIS RESIDUAL MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE (PWATS BETWEEN 1.4-
1.5"-90TH PERCENTILE) WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE NEARBY UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PIEDMONT. GIVEN BOTH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS 76-81,
WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DARK, WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A BATCH OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE BULK OF OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS WILL
RE-DEVELOP ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
TONIGHT(CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE DRIER AIR). LOWS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S, COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE LINGERING SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA WILL
EITHER WASH OUT OR LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY, PLACING
ALL CENTRAL NC IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALLOWING THE PLUME OF 1.4-1.5"
PWAT TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF CENTRAL NC FRIDAY. DIURNAL HEATING AND
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AREA-WIDE, WITH STORMS REMAINING SUB-SEVERE. HIGHS AGAIN
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, WARM ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS 30-40 METER
HEIGHT FALLS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
LOWS 60-65.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
MORNING, REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY, AND
MOVING OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN THAN THEIR COUNTERPARTS, AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS VERY MUCH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY, AND
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN, BUT THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S, THEN
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP AGAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READING POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
IS FORECAST STALL OUT ACROSS SC LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW-
LEVEL AIR INTO NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT. THIS
DRIER AIR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST
OF KRWI AND KRDU.
THE IFR CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO WILL BE SLOW LIFTING THROUGH THE
MORNING, NOT IMPROVING TO VFR UNTIL 17-18Z.
A MOIST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HIGH WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORM MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS(KINT AND KGSO) DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KFAY COULD ALSO SEE ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE.
IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT,
SPREADING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 04 TO 09Z WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KINT AND KGSO.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z/FRIDAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC SAT. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...CBL/HARTFIELD
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