647
FXUS62 KRAH 241839
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
238 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LINGERING FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY, PUTTING
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BACK IN A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
* SLOW-MOVING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL NC WITH AN AREA OF RAIN AND LINGERING LOW OVERCAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC. ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW
OVERCAST, SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND
IS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND THE ONGOING
AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
DISTURBANCE AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING IN THIS GENERAL AREA INTO
SC AS LONG AS MIDNIGHT. BOTTOM LOADED CAPE AND LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE ABNORMALLY MOIST AIRMASS HAS RESULTED IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THESE AREAS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SLOW
MOVING HEAVY DOWNPOURS RESULTING IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL, BUT LIKELY CONFINED TO URBAN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SETTLE IN THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO AROUND 60
ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
* MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN N.
ATLANTIC AND PROMOTE MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING FROM PRIOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM SINCE IT WILL RELY ON THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE BEFORE WASHING OUT ACROSS
THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHWESTERN VA. LOW OVERCAST AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE OVERCAST IS LOWEST, WILL SLOWLY LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY MOIST
WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.25" AND RESULT IN LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC.
ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW MUCH AFTERNOON MIXING OUT OF THE DEW
POINTS CAN OCCUR AS SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MIXING MODELS HAVE
DEW POINTS MIXING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
WOULD LOWER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND RAISE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
12Z HREF SUPPORTS AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE WHICH IS VERY MARGINAL
BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE THERMO-PROFILES. SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS VERY
LIMITED AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN 20 KTS AND FAVOR MORE
PULSE MODE OF CONVECTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
(UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80), BUT DEPENDENT ON OVERALL CLEARING OF LOW
OVERCAST.
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT: A LOW-AMPLITUDE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TN VALLEY
AND LIKELY BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME
STORMS, ALTHOUGH HAMPERED A BIT BY LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. 12Z HI-
RES GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING DEGREES OF ONGOING CONVECTION UPSTREAM
THAT WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRI
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LIKELY IN A WEAKENING STATE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WITH
ITS PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND ONLY SETTLE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS OF 235 AM THURSDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
MORNING, REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY, AND
MOVING OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN THAN THEIR COUNTERPARTS, AND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS VERY MUCH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY, SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY, AND
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE
APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN, BUT THE
HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S, THEN
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM UP AGAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READING POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
AS OF THE 18Z OBSERVATIONS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT ALL TAF
SITES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE WESTERN TERMINALS (INT AND GSO) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LINGERING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT, WITH VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT TERMINALS IN THE WEST, RESULTING IN A
REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY FROM THE RAIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER, BUT
A SHOWER COULD ALSO REACH FAY. TONIGHT, MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AT AROUND 6Z, WITH
CONDITIONS STARTING TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND A COLD FROPA ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/SWIGGETT
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...HELOCK
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