959
FXUS62 KRAH 250038
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
840 PM EDT THU APR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY, PUTTING
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BACK IN A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 840 PM THURSDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOW RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TRIAD
HAS DISSIPATED, LEAVING ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES. FURTHER
UPSTREAM AND TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, WE ARE STILL WATCHING SOME
CONVECTION THAT COULD FAVOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING, COMBINED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS IT SLOWLY
MIGRATES NORTHWARD AS AS WARM FRONT. CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SC IS
PUSHING AN OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT,
WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN GA AND WESTERN NC
WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST IN THE WEAK WSW MID-LEVEL FLOW.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD GENERATE NEW
CELLS REACHING THE TRIAD BY EARLY FRI, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE LIMITED WITH WEAK MUCAPE SEEN IN GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT 20-30
PERCENT POP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SW. CANNOT RULE OUT
FOG OVER THE WEST, WHERE RAIN FELL, AND IN THE NE, WHERE CLOUDS MAY
BE MORE ABSENT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
* MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN N.
ATLANTIC AND PROMOTE MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING FROM PRIOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM SINCE IT WILL RELY ON THE
ORGANIZATION OF THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE BEFORE WASHING OUT ACROSS
THE WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AND SOUTHWESTERN VA. LOW OVERCAST AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG WHERE OVERCAST IS LOWEST, WILL SLOWLY LIFT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY MOIST
WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 1.25" AND RESULT IN LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NC.
ONE THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW MUCH AFTERNOON MIXING OUT OF THE DEW
POINTS CAN OCCUR AS SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MIXING MODELS HAVE
DEW POINTS MIXING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
WOULD LOWER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND RAISE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
12Z HREF SUPPORTS AROUND 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE WHICH IS VERY MARGINAL
BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE THERMO-PROFILES. SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS VERY
LIMITED AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN 20 KTS AND FAVOR MORE
PULSE MODE OF CONVECTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
(UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80), BUT DEPENDENT ON OVERALL CLEARING OF LOW
OVERCAST.
FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT: A LOW-AMPLITUDE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO AND TN VALLEY
AND LIKELY BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME
STORMS, ALTHOUGH HAMPERED A BIT BY LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. 12Z HI-
RES GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING DEGREES OF ONGOING CONVECTION UPSTREAM
THAT WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC LATE FRI
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, LIKELY IN A WEAKENING STATE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WITH
ITS PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND ONLY SETTLE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...
-SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, THEN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE-NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN
FOR SUNDAY THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
IN THE MORNING EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON, AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP IS
ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER LATEST
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE THE HIGH-RES MODEL DATA BEGINS TO COME
IN LATER THIS EVENING THERE WILL BE A BETTER IDEA OF TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING AND CLEARING
THE ENTIRE REGION A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY, DRY SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
REFRESHING DEW POINTS IN THE 40S SUN/MON. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY MID TO LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S ON SUNDAY AND MID/UPPER 70S
MONDAY. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OUT WEST. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
A FEW WARMER SPOTS POSSIBLY HITTING 90 DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR TO LIFR CIGS BETWEEN 06Z
AND 09Z, THEN LINGER THROUGH 13Z-14Z BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO MVFR AND
VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT THE CHANCE INCREASES
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE TRIAD REGION.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREN/SWIGGETT
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BADGETT/HELOCK
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