110
FXUS62 KRAH 250642
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY, PUTTING
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BACK IN A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 840 PM THURSDAY...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOW RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC. EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND TRIAD
HAS DISSIPATED, LEAVING ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES. FURTHER
UPSTREAM AND TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, WE ARE STILL WATCHING SOME
CONVECTION THAT COULD FAVOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING, COMBINED WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AS IT SLOWLY
MIGRATES NORTHWARD AS AS WARM FRONT. CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SC IS
PUSHING AN OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT,
WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND
OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA. CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN GA AND WESTERN NC
WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST IN THE WEAK WSW MID-LEVEL FLOW.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT COULD GENERATE NEW
CELLS REACHING THE TRIAD BY EARLY FRI, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE LIMITED WITH WEAK MUCAPE SEEN IN GUIDANCE. HAVE KEPT 20-30
PERCENT POP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK FRI. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NE TO LOW 60S SW. CANNOT RULE OUT
FOG OVER THE WEST, WHERE RAIN FELL, AND IN THE NE, WHERE CLOUDS MAY
BE MORE ABSENT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
A SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN WITH THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION LOCALLY FROM THE FRONT, AND IT NOW APPEARS
THAT THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS COULD OCCUR ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE. HAVE STILL MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON, AND STILL HAVE
PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION BY 06Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER, OUTSIDE OF
ANY STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO THE MID 80S. WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION AROUND SUNSET, SOME COOLER AIR WILL BE FELT SATURDAY NIGHT,
BUT IT WON'T BE UNTIL SUNDAY THAT THE FULL EXTENT OF THE AIRMASS
CHANGE IS FELT. SATURDAY NIGHT'S LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
BY SUNDAY MORNING, SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
NORTH CAROLINA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER SUNDAY,
MONDAY, AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT ARCING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND THE OHIO VALLEY. SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE
GEFS/EPS SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
THAN THEIR DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS, AND HAVE SLIGHTLY BUMPED UP
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A BIT
OF A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING THIS FAR OUT.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE APRIL INTO EARLY MAY ARE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. VALUES ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEFORE RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND INCREASING ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH
90 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 146 AM FRIDAY...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH MOISTURE ALONG AND TO ITS SOUTH, COUPLED
WITH LIGHT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW, IS MANIFESTING IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID
AND LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ATTM, ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS.
IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE, THE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR
CRITERIA, THEN RISE TO HIGH-MVFR OR VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, CIGS MAY ONCE AGAIN LOWER, ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING, AS AN UPPER S/W TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL
THE SFC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, RESTORING VFR
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREN/SWIGGETT
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...NP
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