787
FXUS62 KRAH 252330
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
730 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 110 PM FRIDAY...
* WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS OVER MOST
OF CENTRAL NC DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY. SPC MESOANALYSIS
HIGHLIGHTS AN ABNORMALLY MOIST AND WEAKLY STABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT VALUES ~1.3" AND MLCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG.
THIS WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME FAVORED AREAS OF GREATER
COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT WHERE A FIELD OF AGITATED
CUMULUS AND SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING, AS WELL AS ALONG THE INLAND
RETREATING SEABREEZE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE ONLY THREATS WILL
LIKELY BE ISOLATED CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND DCAPE IS VERY
LOW. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A SEASONABLY WARM EVENING WITH CONTINUED
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS.
TONIGHT, THE TROUGH AXIS UPSTREAM WILL MEANDER EASTWARD AND SUSTAIN
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND TN VALLIE'S INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTER SUNSET, THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO FEED OFF
WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AT LEAST INITIALLY. AS THIS CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVES INTO WESTERN NC, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AFTER MIDNIGHT, IT
WILL ENCOUNTER AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION DUE
TO POOR DIURNAL TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATION OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY SETTLE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST, THE TRAILING COLD FONT EXTENDS DOWN
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY EXPECT MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
BACK END OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT GIVING IT A LITTLE MORE LIFT, WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREFORE, HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE OVERALL
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT VARYING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE COAST PLAIN. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT BRING ISOLATED AMOUNTS HIGHER
THAN THIS. THE PRECIP WILL CLEAR IN THE NW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FINAL PUSH OF THE FRONT EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN REGION
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S IN
THE NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...
WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FILTERING COOLER AIR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S EACH DAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A WEAK TROUGH FOLLOWS IT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THAT BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE BEACH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
WARMEST DAY EXPECTED TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE UPPER 80S AND WARMER SPOTS HITTING 90 DEGREES. AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM INCHES CLOSER AND AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE TRIAD OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z, THEN PERSIST THROUGH AROUND LATE
MORNING SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD
FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON; BEST CHANCES
WILL BE GSO/INT 18-21Z, RDU 21-00Z, RWI/FAY 22-02Z. GUSTY PRE-
FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS AS WELL AS POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SWIGGETT
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...BADGETT/SWIGGETT
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