538
FXUS62 KRAH 260555
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
155 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
SATURDAY EVENING. DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 900 PM FRIDAY...
IT IS ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT ON RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL NC. ONLY A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
TIED TO THE WESTWARD MOVING SEA BREEZE. THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM
ACTIVITY IS PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN TN AND EASTERN AL TO
NORTHERN GA. THIS IS TIED TO A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE OH VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TIED TO THE TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SAT MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT
THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN GA. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH IN SC, WHILE OTHER CAMS SHOW IT HOLDING
TOGETHER BEFORE WEAKENING WHEN REACHING THE TRIANGLE SAT MORNING.
FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT LOW-END CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE FEATURE
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, HIGHEST WEST OF US-1. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY BY THE TIME ANY SHOWERS ARRIVE, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER. LOWS SHOULD STAY MILD WITH LOW TO MIDDLE
60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...
AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST, THE TRAILING COLD FONT EXTENDS DOWN
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY EXPECT MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
BACK END OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT GIVING IT A LITTLE MORE LIFT, WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. THEREFORE, HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE OVERALL
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT VARYING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE NW
PIEDMONT TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE COAST PLAIN. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE A FEW STRONGER STORMS THAT BRING ISOLATED AMOUNTS HIGHER
THAN THIS. THE PRECIP WILL CLEAR IN THE NW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FINAL PUSH OF THE FRONT EXITING THE COASTAL PLAIN REGION
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S IN
THE NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...
WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE FILTERING COOLER AIR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S EACH DAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A WEAK TROUGH FOLLOWS IT BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THAT BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH THE BEACH
CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
WARMEST DAY EXPECTED TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE UPPER 80S AND WARMER SPOTS HITTING 90 DEGREES. AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM INCHES CLOSER AND AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT EACH AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN, WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TRIAD AIRPORTS (KINT/KGSO) BETWEEN 07-09Z AND MAY BRIEFLY
REDUCE FLT CONDITIONS TO LOW-MVFR. OTHERWISE, THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KRWI AND KFAY. AFTER SUNRISE, CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ASSOC WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR
TSTM CONDITIONS AT KINT/KGSO AROUND 21Z, KRDU AROUND 23Z, AND KRWI
AND KFAY AROUND 01Z. IN THESE CASES, FLT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
REDUCED FOR ABOUT 90 MINUTES OR SO BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AS
THE STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT VRB SFC GUSTS
UP TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FROPA, WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY, UP TO 20-25 KTS.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SWIGGETT
NEAR TERM...KREN
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...NP
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