422
FXUS62 KRAH 261038 CCA
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
638 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL NC
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 638 AM SATURDAY...
A S/W TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SEEN CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS ON
SATELLITE THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN PROVIDING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FOR THE LIGHT RAIN THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
OF THE STATE. MOST OF THE CAMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES STABLE AIR
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE POP
ADJUSTMENTS WITH A QUICK UPDATE AS OF THE TIME OF THIS AFD.
THE OTHER WEATHER STORY FOR TODAY IS THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS MORNING'S RAIN
WILL END EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME DESTABLIZATION WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. CURRENT MESO GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SB CAPE VALUES
MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN ADVANCE OF THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THAT COUPLED WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR >=35KT COULD SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW OF THE
TSTMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH ISOLD DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS
AND 1/2 TO 1" INCH HAIL BEING POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THIS MORNINGS RAIN PERSISTS AND THE DEGREE TO
WHICH THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE IN ITS WAKE. BUT THERE'S
ENOUGH RISK TO WARRANT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BEING PLACED IN
MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR PER SPC'S LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK. CURRENT MODEL
TIMING OF STORMS WOULD HAVE THE RISK NEAR THE TRIAD AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE TRIANGLE REGION
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM, AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM.
AS ELUDED TO, TODAY'S HIGH TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
EVOLUTION, BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
80S. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL BECOME NW
AND WE'LL SEE CLEARING SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 50 N
AND NW TO UPPER 50S SE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ONLY REACHING
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE THE COOLEST 24 HOURS OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS NEAR
VIRGINIA REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S. LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST, MOVING OFF THE OUTER
BANKS TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THEN SOUTHEAST INTO FLORIDA. IT
APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IT ISN'T UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SURGE FARTHER EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS/GEFS BOTH KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS VIRGINIA
WHILE THE ECMWF/EPS FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA.
CONSIDERING THE ENSEMBLES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PRECIPITATION, HAVE CONTINUED THE SAME TREND WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THAT AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING. DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR.
FINALLY, AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA ON
FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH CARLINA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE 70S,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH LOW/MID
80S ON TUESDAY AND MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S MONDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 60S THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 638 AM SATURDAY...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, INCLUDING INVOF
KINT/KGSO, IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. THE OVERALL TREND THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAS BEEN FOR DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, AND NOW MOST
OF THE CAMS SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE KRDU. OTHERWISE, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHEN ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NC ASSOC WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR TSTM CONDITIONS AT KINT/KGSO
AROUND 21Z, KRDU AROUND 23Z, AND KRWI AND KFAY AROUND 01Z. IN THESE
CASES, FLT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN REDUCED FOR ABOUT 90 MINUTES OR SO
BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AS THE STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST. IT'S
WORTH NOTING THAT VRB SFC GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA, WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY, UP
TO 20-25 KTS.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...NP
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