620
FXUS62 KRAH 261424
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1024 AM EDT SAT APR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO CENTRAL NC
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT WE CAN EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1023 AM SATURDAY...
REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A BAND OF MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN. THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY A
DISSIPATING LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS, CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH
WESTERN NC, THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS WAKE, DRYING MID/UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FILTER
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
BY THIS AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD OVERCAST WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING
SKIES QUICKLY BECOMING FILLED WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AMPLE INSOLATION AND WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT MOSTLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INITIATE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC/VA IN THE VICINITY OF A LEE-TROUGH AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.
MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE EASTWARD PROGRESSING TROUGH AXIS AND EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW
THROUGH A MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. IF ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IS ABLE TO OCCUR, SHEAR PROFILES
ARE OVERALL FAIRLY MARGINAL AND CONTRIBUTE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FAVOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORM MODE.
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8-9C/KM AND DCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG
MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL MAY BE
DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MULTICELL STORM
MODE, BUT ISOLATED SUB-SEVERE HAIL (<1") COULD BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
DEEPEST UPDRAFTS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT
WITH SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER AND SETTLE GENERALLY
IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY MORNING
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ONLY REACHING
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE THE COOLEST 24 HOURS OUT OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS NEAR
VIRGINIA REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S. LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST, MOVING OFF THE OUTER
BANKS TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING OFFSHORE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THEN SOUTHEAST INTO FLORIDA. IT
APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IT ISN'T UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SURGE FARTHER EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS/GEFS BOTH KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS VIRGINIA
WHILE THE ECMWF/EPS FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA.
CONSIDERING THE ENSEMBLES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PRECIPITATION, HAVE CONTINUED THE SAME TREND WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THAT AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
ILLINOIS BY THURSDAY EVENING. DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR.
FINALLY, AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA ON
FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH CARLINA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE 70S,
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH LOW/MID
80S ON TUESDAY AND MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S MONDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 60S THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 638 AM SATURDAY...
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT, INCLUDING INVOF
KINT/KGSO, IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. THE OVERALL TREND THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAS BEEN FOR DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY, AND NOW MOST
OF THE CAMS SHOW THIS BAND CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARD THE KRDU. OTHERWISE, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY VFR
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHEN ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NC ASSOC WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. LOOK FOR BRIEF IFR TSTM CONDITIONS AT KINT/KGSO
AROUND 21Z, KRDU AROUND 23Z, AND KRWI AND KFAY AROUND 01Z. IN THESE
CASES, FLT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN REDUCED FOR ABOUT 90 MINUTES OR SO
BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AS THE STORMS EXIT TO THE EAST. IT'S
WORTH NOTING THAT VRB SFC GUSTS UP TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA, WINDS WILL BECOME NW AND GUSTY, UP
TO 20-25 KTS.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...SWIGGETT
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...GREEN
AVIATION...NP
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