668
FXUS62 KRAH 101948
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
345 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, LIKELY
RESULTING IN MULTIPLE INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER LOUISIANA WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DO LITTLE
MORE THAN ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NEXT 18
HOURS, MOVING BACK OVER LOUISIANA. ONE WAVE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH
CAROLINA, BUT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BETWEEN 20 AND 30
DEGREES, THINK THAT THE CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATING RAIN WITH THIS
FIRST WAVE ARE QUITE MINIMAL, AND THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY DO
LITTLE MORE THAN HELP TO SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE FROM 5 TO 10
THOUSAND FEET. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, BUT THEN A JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE CLOSED
LOW AND MOVE OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE NCAR MPAS ENSEMBLE FORECAST HAS
REALLY LATCHED ONTO THIS FEATURE, SHOWING AN AREA OF ONE-HALF INCH
TO ONE INCH OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER.
THE 12Z HREF ALSO HAS INCREASED PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THIS
AREA, ALTHOUGH IT STAYS A LITTLE BIT MORE SUPPRESSED ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA. WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE, HAVE INCREASED POPS
EVERYWHERE, INCLUDING ADDING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS AND/OR QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN GENERAL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...
THE AREA OF LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ON
SUNDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST ONLY HAS LIKELY POPS
MAKING IT ABOUT FAR NORTH AS US 64. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN RETREAT TO THE SOUTH, WITH A MINIMUM
OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION EXPANDS TO THE NORTHEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT'S PRECIPITATION
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND HAVE GONE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS WEST OF THE TRIANGLE AND LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS. SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE
MILDER THAN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
* PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE
NIGHT, WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 2-4 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES
* TRENDING HOT WITH MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS THU THRU SAT
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING SPECIFICS FOR WHAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW REGARDING THE SYSTEM FOR THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY MON INTO THE TN VALLEY TUE AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC WED AND WED NIGHT. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
SOLUTIONS TAKE THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST SOMETIME THU, WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
SAT.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE ENE INTO MIDWEEK, A
NUMBER OF INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. THESE INGREDIENTS INCLUDE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.75+ INCHES) AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VALUES (500 TO 750 KG M/S) NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
JET STREAK, AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES, LOWEST NE AND HIGHEST SW. THE LOW-END (AT LEAST THIS
MUCH) RANGES FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. BUT GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE, AMOUNTS COULD BE NEAR THE 75-90TH PERCENTILE IN SOME
SPOTS, WHICH RANGES 3 TO 5 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PERIOD MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
THE GEFS/NAEFS INDICATE A 30-PERCENT CHANCE OF ACTION TO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE OF PART OF THE ROCKY RIVER, DEEP AND HAW RIVERS, AND PART OF
THE NEUSE BETWEEN TUE AND THU. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FAVORED MON AFTN THROUGH
TUE EVENING WHEN THE SAID INGREDIENTS ARE MORE ALIGNED. THE HIGH
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW/MID
70S MON AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S TUE. LASTLY, WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TUE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR IN PLACE.
BY WED, THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE BAGGY JUST TO OUR NORTH, BUT A
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY UNDER
COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD FAVOR AFTN/EVE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS, SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
THE PATTERN THU THROUGH SAT SHOULD FAVOR MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR THE 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE UNDER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FRI AND A POSSIBLE FRONT SAT. HIGHS SHOULD ALSO
TREND ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR HOT CONDITIONS WITH MID/UPPER 80S THU TO
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FRI/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH HEAT INDICES
AS WELL GIVEN DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 120 PM SATURDAY...
TAF PERIOD: MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS. A
STACKED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER LOUISIANA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A JET STREAK BRINGS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND LOWER IN HEIGHT OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT FAY WILL DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH SHOWER COVERAGE
WILL BE AROUND THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE INHERITED VCSH MENTION IN AT
FAY. IT APPEARS THAT BY 18Z SUNDAY, INT/GSO WILL BE APPROACHING MVFR
CIGS AND FAY WILL BE APPROACHING IFR CIGS, BUT THAT TIMING CAN BE
BETTER HANDLED IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE.
OUTLOOK: RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GREEN
NEAR TERM...GREEN
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...GREEN
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