994
FXUS62 KRAH 110650
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN MISS VALLEY AND THE
MOIST DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS EAST SIDE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE ON OUR WX TODAY. THE RAIN THAT'S CURRENTLY SEEN ON
REGIONAL RADAR TO OUR SOUTH IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING REACHING OUR SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND TRIAD ZONES SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK, THEN CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTH REACHING THE TRIANGLE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
FALLING ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF RDU, NEARLY ALL
MEMBERS OF THE HREF SHOW THIS BAND OF RAIN DISSIPATING AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO A MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. HIGHS TODAY,
LARGELY INFLUENCED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN, WILL BE HELD IN THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE TRIAD AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC THIS
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE VIGOROUS
RAIN BREAKS OUT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH A POWERFUL JET STREAK LIFTING NORTH ON THE DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY...
* PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED MON THROUGH TUE
NIGHT, WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 2-4 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES
* TRENDING HOT WITH MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS THU THRU SAT
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING SPECIFICS FOR WHAT HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW REGARDING THE SYSTEM FOR THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY MON INTO THE TN VALLEY TUE AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC WED AND WED NIGHT. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
SOLUTIONS TAKE THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST SOMETIME THU, WITH
RIDGING BUILDING IN FRI AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
SAT.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE ENE INTO MIDWEEK, A
NUMBER OF INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. THESE INGREDIENTS INCLUDE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.75+ INCHES) AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
VALUES (500 TO 750 KG M/S) NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DIVERGENCE FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
JET STREAK, AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE
POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2
TO 4 INCHES, LOWEST NE AND HIGHEST SW. THE LOW-END (AT LEAST THIS
MUCH) RANGES FROM 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. BUT GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE, AMOUNTS COULD BE NEAR THE 75-90TH PERCENTILE IN SOME
SPOTS, WHICH RANGES 3 TO 5 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE PERIOD MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
THE GEFS/NAEFS INDICATE A 30-PERCENT CHANCE OF ACTION TO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE OF PART OF THE ROCKY RIVER, DEEP AND HAW RIVERS, AND PART OF
THE NEUSE BETWEEN TUE AND THU. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FAVORED MON AFTN THROUGH
TUE EVENING WHEN THE SAID INGREDIENTS ARE MORE ALIGNED. THE HIGH
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW/MID
70S MON AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S TUE. LASTLY, WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT TUE WITH MARGINAL SHEAR IN PLACE.
BY WED, THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE BAGGY JUST TO OUR NORTH, BUT A
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY UNDER
COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD FAVOR AFTN/EVE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS, SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
THE PATTERN THU THROUGH SAT SHOULD FAVOR MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR THE 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE UNDER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FRI AND A POSSIBLE FRONT SAT. HIGHS SHOULD ALSO
TREND ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR HOT CONDITIONS WITH MID/UPPER 80S THU TO
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FRI/SAT. THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH HEAT INDICES
AS WELL GIVEN DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY: MVFR CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL NC FROM THE SOUTH AND WILL EXIST OFF-AND-ON
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME TODAY MAINLY FROM RDU SOUTH AND WESTWARD.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRWI, FLT CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO LOW-MVFR OR
IFR AT TIMES AS A BAND OF RAIN, CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS SC, MAKES ITS WAY UP TO CENTRAL NC DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CRITERIA
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
AFTER 06Z MONDAY: WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT SUB-VFR FOG/STRATUS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SWIGGETT
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...GREEN
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...NP
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