422
FXUS62 KRAH 111843
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WET AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC FROM 06Z/TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z/TUESDAY.
THE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THE NE AREAS HAVE YET TO
SEE ANY RAIN AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUED TO BE DRIER UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGHER PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SHORTLY.
HIGHS SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH-CENTRAL
RANGING INTO THE LOWER 70S SE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS A MUCH DEEPER INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO IS PULLED NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY, THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AS THE
MID/UPPER LOW TO OUR SW FINALLY BEGINS A MOVE NE TOWARD THE REGION.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH-CENTRAL TO MID 60S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS LOWLY INTO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT, A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.5 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE A WARM FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL NC, BUT WITH SOME IN-
SITU CAD OVER THE PIEDMONT LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL LEAVE A BOUNDARY MOST LIKELY OVER THE PIEDMONT, WITH THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE COAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS WHERE
THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL LIKELY BE, WITH ANOTHER MAXIMUM SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE CAD BOUNDARY OVER THE PIEDMONT. THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY TO
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OR SHORT BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH
SOME TRAINING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN LIKELY, FLASH FLOOD HOURLY RATES
MAY BE EXCEEDED ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN
AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
ADDITION, IT MAY TAKE A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO SATURATE THE
SOILS IN SOME AREAS WITH FLOODING MORE LIKELY WITH EACH PASSING
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
RECENT RAIN HAS AIDED IN WETTING THE SOIL, THOUGH NO REGION IS
REALLY SATURATED AT THE MOMENT. THIS IS A POSITIVE. ANOTHER POSITIVE
IS THAT DROUGHT (D0 TO D2) CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC AND THIS RAINFALL WILL AID IN TEMPERING THAT.
EXPECT MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NW-N RANGING INTO THE
MID 70S SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND A SOME THUNDER WILL CONTINUE IN BANDS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE CAMS POTENTIALLY INDICATING
A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES LATE. LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S. ALL SAID, STORM TOTALS THROUGH
12Z/TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...
* POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUE, ALONG WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS.
* HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: THE SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN
AS IT TRACKS E/NE INTO WV, WHILE ITS TRAILING TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONT PUSH FURTHER ENE INTO THE CAROLINAS, NUDGING THE PLUME OF
GREATEST AND MOST ANOMALOUS PW INTO OUR NE CWA AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR
NE AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. IF HEAVY AND/OR TRAINING
RAINBANDS PERSIST OVER OUR NE TUE MORNING, A SHORT-TERM EXTENSION OF
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. BUT OVERALL, WE SHOULD SEE A
DECREASE IN HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WITH LOWERING PW AND WANING DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN THE
APPROACHING INCREASINGLY BAGGY TROUGH. PWS WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL, THOUGH, AND MODELS PROJECT MODERATE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AMIDST
DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS,
MAINLY NE EARLY AND AREAWIDE LATE IN THE DAY, TAPERING DOWN TUE
EVENING/NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80, ALTHOUGH IF
CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EXPECTED, THESE HIGHS MAY BE
OPTIMISTIC. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
WED-SAT: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH ESP ACROSS OUR N AND E WED,
AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH LIFTS UP THROUGH THE AREA, ALTHOUGH
THE STEADY DECLINE IN MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL RESULT IN WANING
DPVA OVERALL. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT REDUCED BY CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS, DESPITE SLOWLY REBOUNDING THICKNESSES, SO EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. BY THU, A DEEP LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE WSW, AND AS WE GET INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, OUR THICKNESSES WILL RISE TO 10 M ABOVE NORMAL THU.
BY FRI/SAT, AS THIS LOW SHEARS W-E AND SHIFTS SLOWLY E/ESE OVER S
ONTARIO, IT WILL TAMP DOWN THE RIDGE RESULTING IN A FAST W TO WNW
STEERING FLOW OVER THE E-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A SHARPENING W-E
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR N FROM THE MID MISS VALLEY ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. SUCH A PATTERN FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIDWEST MCS
ACTIVITY (OR ITS RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND MCV) TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AS WE GET LATER
IN THE WEEK. AND PRIOR TO THIS, THE GFS PROJECTS HIGH CAPE OF 2000-
3000 J/KG AND 35-40 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW, WHICH COULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STRONG LATE-DAY STORMS. FOR NOW, WILL CARRY LOW END
DIURNAL-LEANING POPS THU AND FRI, THEN A BIT HIGHER (NEAR CLIMO) FOR
SAT. WITH THICKNESSES 25 M ABOVE NORMAL FRI/SAT AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR OR OVER 70F, THE RESULTANT HEAT MAY BE A
HEALTH CONCERN, WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK VALUES SUGGESTING AN
ELEVATED HEAT ILLNESS THREAT, AS HEAT INDICES MAY REACH 95-100F, ESP
FRI. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S THU, UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FRI, AND MID
80S TO LOW 90S SAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER
CONVECTION CHANCES. -GIH
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 137 PM SUNDAY...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY: GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS IFR CIGS DEVELOP ALONG
WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY FROM THE SOUTH WITH IFR TO OCCASIONALLY LIFR
CONDITIONS.
AFTER 18Z MONDAY: BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK. LATE NIGHT LOW STRATUS (IFR TO
LIFR) WILL BE LIKELY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...BADGETT
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