064
FXUS62 KRAH 140737
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ATOP AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SE US WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AND
UNSEASONABLY HOT TO END THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 335 AM WEDNESDAY...
* ANOTHER MARGINAL/LEVEL 1 RISK OF OF SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS(REMNANT
OF A FORMER CLOSED LOW) WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND EXIT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS AND FORCING MOVES INTO THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
LATE THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE STORMS SHIFT EAST WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND
EAST OF US 1. GIVEN 25-30 KTS, THE CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL EVOLVE
INTO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. DAMAGING WINDS IS THE GREATEST
THREAT, WITH ONE OR TWO EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT EASTERN AREAS BY ~00Z THU.
HOWEVER, THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND RELATED UPPER
DISTURBANCES COULD RESULT IN THE RE-DEVELOPMENT IF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT, POTENTIALLY DENSE BETWEEN 06-12Z, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64.
HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM MID/UPPER 70S NW TO LOWER 80S SE. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN
OUTLYING RURAL AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 323 PM TUESDAY...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT
RISES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS WILL BRING A DECENT CAPPING
INVERSION THAT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS GOOD SURFACE HEATING AND
DEW POINTS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER-60S RESULT IN MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE EAST, IN CLOSEST
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
DELMARVA/NJ AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS THERE,
DECREASING FARTHER WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TURN ABOVE AVERAGE,
IN THE MID-80S TO 90. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER-60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY END UP BEING ISOLATED AT BEST ON FRIDAY
ALSO, AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO A SLOWER EXIT OF THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WHICH STILL LOOKS TO EXTEND NE INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL FINALLY BEGIN
EXPERIENCING SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE NEXT DEEP
CLOSED LOW THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS MN, WI AND LAKE SUPERIOR, WHICH
WILL HELP SUPPRESS THE RIDGING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. BUT BY THIS POINT, WE WILL
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL THE BIGGER CONCERN WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT AND SW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S
(MAYBE ISOLATED MID-90S IN THE TYPICAL HOT SPOTS). DEW POINTS WILL
INCREASE TO THE UPPER-60S AND LOWER-70S, SO HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID-90S TO 100 FROM THE TRIANGLE TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S.
AS THE MID/UPPER LOW AND OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW TRACK EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK DECENT, MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE ON GUIDANCE, AS WE ONLY GET A GLANCING
BLOW IN UPPER FORCING WITH THE LOW TRACKING SO FAR TO OUR NORTH.
ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF IS ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. SO ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SATURDAY'S
TEMPERATURES MAY BE KEPT DOWN A BIT BY THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD STILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S, AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER-90S IN THE
SE.
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY,
AS WE ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND/SE CANADA AND
STRENGTHENING RIDGING TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP TO OUR SOUTH, KEEPING US RELATIVELY STABLE. SO
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN
AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT CYCLONE TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AND THE FRONT POSSIBLY GETS PUSHED NORTH
INTO OUR REGION AS A WARM FRONT. THICKNESSES ONLY SLIGHTLY FALL
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SO STILL FORECAST ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
80S FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-TO-MID-60S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
GIVEN THE BETTER UPPER TROUGH DYNAMICS AND FORCING ACROSS
WESTERN NC, SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION MAY PERSIST OR RE-DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT HOURS AROUND KINT AND KGSO. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOCUSED ON
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
AT KRWI AND KRDU. THIS FOG LAYER COULD IMPACT KINT AND KGSO
IF THE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
SURFACE COOLING.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12 TO 13Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY, THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT EASTERN AREAS BY ~00Z THU,
BUT SOME ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD RE-DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...LUCHETTI
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...CBL
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