451
FXUS62 KRAH 170811
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
411 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
ON SUNDAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 410 AM SATURDAY...
* A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING A RISK OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID TO POSSIBLY LATE MORNING. OF NOTE, THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROTATING CELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL.
* THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS NOW CONFINED TO THE
MORNING HOURS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED
TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND MODEST IN STRENGTH.
* GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MI
SOUTHWEST ACROSS IN AND SOUTHERN IL INTO MO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH
MUGGY DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OF NOTE, AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
AND FAR NORTHERN NC ON FRIDAY EVENING PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE TRIANGLE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. THIS BOUNDARY HAS RETREATED NORTH AND
DEW POINTS HAS CLIMBED BACK TO AROUND 70 IN THE TRIANGLE.
THE AIRMASS ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS QUITE INVIGORATED FOR THE PREDAWN
HOURS IN MID MAY. WHILE THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MOST OF
CENTRAL NC WITH A COUPLE HUNDRED UNITS OF CIN, THE AIRMASS IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE. IN
ADDITION, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE JUICED AT AROUND 8 DEG C/KM AND
DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS
ENVIRONMENT WELL WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CIN, MEAGER LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND HIGH LFC'S REQUIRING FORCING TO LAUNCH WHAT WILL LARGELY
BE ELEVATED CONVECTION. IF UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE
INTO CENTRAL, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IS REAL. WITH A
LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HOWEVER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60KTS WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED ELEMENTS IN THE LINE AND SEVERAL CAMS HIGHLIGHT SWATHS OF
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND ROTATING STORMS THAT COULD GENERAL LARGE AND
SIGNIFICANT HAIL.
THE BIGGEST UNKNOWN IS HOW THE CONVECTION WILL RESPOND AFTER
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS AND WHETHER THE CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
WHILE RADAR DATA OVER THE PAST HOUR SUGGESTS A THE CONVECTION MAY IN
FACT BE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
POST A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED AT
BOONE NC AND GALAX VA.
A NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS DAYS IS THAT THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE THIS MORNING AND NOT EXTEND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION
THAT REDEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND FOCUSED
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND MOST LIKELY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
A WARM AD HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND THE AMOUNT OF
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WILL FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 90 NEAR FAYETTEVILLE
AND GOLDSBORO, THE UPPER 80S IN THE TRIANGLE AND THE MID 80S IN THE
TRIAD. IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY LATE,
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. -BLAES
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...
* WARM, BUT DRIER WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE LARGELY QUIET BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INCOMING AIRMASS ISN'T PARTICULARLY MUCH COOLER,
BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AS DEW POINTS DROP INTO THE MID 50S.
MOMENTUM JUST ABOVE A SHALLOW INVERSION SUN MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX
OUT AND PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 80S, NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS AND REMNANT MCVS FROM UPSTREAM STORMS RIDING THE NOW
STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH, SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
AS MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL SETTLE IN
THE 60S OUTSIDE OF THE FAR NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE UPPER 50S WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...
* A SHARPENING WARM FRONT LIFTING TROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY.
A COUPLE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOWS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
THE NORTHEAST WILL CREATE BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGING FROM THE GULF
COAST UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTEND OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER GA/SC MON MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT HOW FAR NORTH IS FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WILL EXIST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-2000
J/KG OF SBCAPE. MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS A CONVECTIVE
INDUCED DISTURBANCE RIDING THE RIDGE MON AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST BY PEAK HEATING WITH ENHANCED WESTERLIES CONTRIBUTING TO
30 TO 40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT RIPPLING
NORTHWARD MON AFTERNOON WILL DELINEATE THE NORTHWARD EXPECT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MON EVENING.
BY TUES MORNING, THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FURTHER INTO
OUR AREA AND SHARPEN AS IT MEETS A BACKDOOR FRONT SLIDING DOWN
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND STRENGTHENING
WAA ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BLOSSOMING AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT TUES EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT INTO VA INTO WED MORNING
WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF LULL IS PRECIPITATION UNTIL A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BRINGS ANOTHER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL STORMS.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ITS SOURCE REGION STEMMING FROM
CENTRAL QUEBEC WHERE A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO LOCATED.
COOLER AND MOSTLY DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
A VEIL OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 20KFT. A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST AND WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AT AROUND 06Z. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS BETWEEN
09-12Z WITH A THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 35KTS IN A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH VSBY AND CIG RESTRICTIONS. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN A BIT, REACHING THE
TRIANGLE AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 13Z. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
TO JUST SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE FAYETTEVILLE AND ROCKY MOUNT
AREAS AS JUST SHOWERS BETWEEN 11 AND 15Z. AFTER THE INITIAL BAND OF
CONVECTION SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS
OF 15KTS AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KTS AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
PERIODS OF LLWS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION WITH A 40 TO 45KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE LLWS
THREAT WILL DISSIPATE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE WINDS RELAX BUT A STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND
50KTS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF LLWS MAINLY FROM RALEIGH EAST UP UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. -BLAES
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...SWIGGETT
LONG TERM...SWIGGETT
AVIATION...BLAES
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