723
FXUS62 KRAH 011346
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
946 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE PUSHING EAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRACK ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. THE 12Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSES SHOW THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA/THE NORTHEAST
US, WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AT
H5 THERE WERE SOME 50 METER HEIGHT RISES OVER CENTRAL NC, WITH
GENERALLY WLY FLOW AND PERTURBATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ABOVE
GSO, WHILE H85 WAS STILL NEARLY SATURATED (DEWPOINT DEPRESSION LESS
THAN 5 DEG), DRY AIR HAD ADVECTED IN ABOVE IT, WITH, WITH 30 DEGREE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT H7. AT THE SURFACE, THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FROM THOSE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW
60S REMAINS DRAPED WNW-ESE FROM THE NW PIEDMONT TO THE SRN COASTAL
PLAIN. -KC
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (AS OF 235 AM): THE DEEP TROUGHING OVER E NOAM,
AND THE EMBEDDED WAVES SWINGING THROUGH ITS BASE, WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY, COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BACKDOOR FRONT SETTLING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NC AND EXTENDING NW
THROUGH KY/IL, SEPARATING DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/40S TO ITS N FROM
50S/60S TO THE S. A BAND OF MID CLOUDS EXTENDS ACROSS IL/KY AND NE
TN ACROSS W AND S NC, ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF
THE FAST MID LEVEL JET CORE. THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT
TO OUR NE TODAY, BUT THE WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER NC WILL STILL BE 35-45
KTS, SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY ALONG AND S OF
THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND
INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY. WITH THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME
INSOLATION AND ANOTHER SHOT OF 925-700 MB LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5 C/KM
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY,
SBCAPE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 600-1200 J/KG, GREATEST ACROSS THE W
AND S, ALTHOUGH MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES FURTHER ALOFT AT 700-500
MB MAY LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST HREF SUITE SHOWS THE HIGHER
(OVER 50%) JOINT PROBABILITIES OF >30 KT BULK SHEAR AT >500 J/KG
SBCAPE OVER OUR W IN THE 4P-10P TIME FRAME, WHICH ALIGNS FAIRLY WELL
WITH THE TIMING OF PEAK STORM IMPACTS FROM THE NCAR HRRR NEURAL NET
OUTPUT. THE LATTER FAVORS STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS TODAY, REASONABLE PARTICULARLY WITH
ANY STORM CLUSTERS THAT CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO BOWING SEGMENTS. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING,
FOLLOWING THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND CORRESPONDING WEAK
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT, WITH POPS EXITING THE
COASTAL PLAIN IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
MID 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND CLEARING
SKIES LATE. -GIH
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
* PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SE MON MORNING, WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING E OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM
TX/OK/KS INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND MID SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH WEAK WINDS WILL SETTLE OVER VA/NC, ACCOMPANIED BY SUB-
1" PWS, DOWNSLOPE NW-NNW WINDS AT 925-850 MB, AND FALLING DEWPOINTS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC,
RESULTING IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST.
THIS INSOLATION WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF BELOW-NORMAL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES (25-30 M BELOW NORMAL), FAVORING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH PLEASANT LOW HUMIDITY AS OUR RH IS LIKELY TO
BOTTOM OUT AT 28-38%. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S. -GIH
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 258 AM SUNDAY...
* CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THU TO
SAT
* STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY WED. IT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD BERMUDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. A 590-591 DM
RIDGE WILL BE OVER US DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME AS WELL. THE
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONTINUED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH MID TO UPPER
80S TUE/WED AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THU THROUGH SAT. HEAT INDICES
WILL PEAK FRI/SAT IN THE LOW/MID 90S AS DEWPOINTS GET INTO THE UPPER
60S.
SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A
CLOSED UPPER-LOW OVER FL AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COULD UNDERCUT
THE RIDGE AND REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THU. THIS COULD BRING SOME
LOW-END ISOLATED STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE RIGHT NOW OVER OUR
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. OTHER GUIDANCE IS DRIER SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT TOO HIGH.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED STORMS, FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIME FRAME, IS STILL FAVORED FRI AND SAT. AT THIS TIME,
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS STILL INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT
AS PERTURBED ZONAL FLOW AND BROAD TROUGHING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRY
TO APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY, ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE. SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WOULD SAY THE
FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH SAT, WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT HUNG UP TO OUR
NORTH OR OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGH STORM CHANCES INTO SAT GIVEN
THE USUAL TIME OF YEAR WHERE FRONTS START TO STRUGGLE MOVING THROUGH.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY DOMINATE AT CENTRAL NC TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT AS A SURFACE FRONT SETTLES INTO OUR NE SECTIONS
TODAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS AND TRACK TOWARD THE ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST 19Z-
23Z AT INT/GSO, 21Z-02Z AT RDU, 22Z-03Z AT RWI, AND 23Z-04Z AT FAY.
OTHERWISE, SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS BASED AROUND 5KFT THROUGH
10KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z, WITH SKIES GRADUALLY TRENDING TO
MOSTLY CLEAR W TO E AFTER 05Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF FOG EARLY
MON MORNING FROM 08Z TO 12Z OVER THE SE INCLUDING NEAR FAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING, THEN MOSTLY FROM THE SW OR
W AT 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH 00Z, THEN LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z MON, VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ARE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THU, UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KC/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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