846
FXUS62 KRAH 011751
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE PUSHING EAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRACK ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
ALOFT, A MID-LEVEL S/W WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PARENT
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SHARPENS THIS AFT/EVE AND LINGERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY SHOULD LIFT NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS EVE.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SBCAPE IN THE 500-
1200 J/KG RANGE, WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM. THE S/W PASSAGE, COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK
SFC LOW/TROUGH AND THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFT EVE.
INITIALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE
CLUSTERED AS IT SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS AND
SRN COASTAL PLAIN. TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND
MIDNIGHT OR SO. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AND SFC TROUGH, SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT AND ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM THE NW
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOW/MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S SE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM SUNDAY...
* PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SE MON MORNING, WITH THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING E OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM
TX/OK/KS INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND MID SOUTH. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH WEAK WINDS WILL SETTLE OVER VA/NC, ACCOMPANIED BY SUB-
1" PWS, DOWNSLOPE NW-NNW WINDS AT 925-850 MB, AND FALLING DEWPOINTS
WITH DAYTIME MIXING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NC,
RESULTING IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST.
THIS INSOLATION WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF BELOW-NORMAL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES (25-30 M BELOW NORMAL), FAVORING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH PLEASANT LOW HUMIDITY AS OUR RH IS LIKELY TO
BOTTOM OUT AT 28-38%. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MON NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S. -GIH
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 258 AM SUNDAY...
* CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THU TO
SAT
* STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY WED. IT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD BERMUDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. A 590-591 DM
RIDGE WILL BE OVER US DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME AS WELL. THE
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND CONTINUED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH MID TO UPPER
80S TUE/WED AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THU THROUGH SAT. HEAT INDICES
WILL PEAK FRI/SAT IN THE LOW/MID 90S AS DEWPOINTS GET INTO THE UPPER
60S.
SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A
CLOSED UPPER-LOW OVER FL AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COULD UNDERCUT
THE RIDGE AND REACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THU. THIS COULD BRING SOME
LOW-END ISOLATED STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE RIGHT NOW OVER OUR
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. OTHER GUIDANCE IS DRIER SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT TOO HIGH.
A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED STORMS, FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TIME FRAME, IS STILL FAVORED FRI AND SAT. AT THIS TIME,
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS STILL INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT
AS PERTURBED ZONAL FLOW AND BROAD TROUGHING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRY
TO APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY, ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE. SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WOULD SAY THE
FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH SAT, WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT HUNG UP TO OUR
NORTH OR OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGH STORM CHANCES INTO SAT GIVEN
THE USUAL TIME OF YEAR WHERE FRONTS START TO STRUGGLE MOVING THROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 150 PM SUNDAY...
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FROM ANY STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THESE STORMS IMPACTING
ANY TERMINAL IS HIGHEST AT KFAY/KRDU/KRWI. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT
STORMS AT KINT/KGSO EITHER. CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT AND DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z MONDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z MON, VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ARE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THU, UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY RETURN NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/HARTFIELD
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