462
FXUS62 KRAH 012315
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
714 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE PUSHING EAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRACK ESE THROUGH CENTRAL NC
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
ALOFT, A MID-LEVEL S/W WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PARENT
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SHARPENS THIS AFT/EVE AND LINGERS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY SHOULD LIFT NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THIS EVE.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN THE WAKE OF
THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SBCAPE IN THE 500-
1200 J/KG RANGE, WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM. THE S/W PASSAGE, COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK
SFC LOW/TROUGH AND THE BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, SHOULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFT EVE.
INITIALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE
CLUSTERED AS IT SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PIEDMONT, SANDHILLS AND
SRN COASTAL PLAIN. TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND
MIDNIGHT OR SO. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S. IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AND SFC TROUGH, SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT AND ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED FROM THE NW
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM LOW/MID 50S NW TO LOW 60S SE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
* PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST ON MONDAY, WITH ONE LAST SHORTWAVE CLIPPING THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
APPEAR TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, AND ALSO SUGGEST
MIXING OF DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN NBM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
* CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THU TO
SAT
* STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND
UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 1400M. HIGHS WILL
CREEP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK
FRI/SAT IN THE LOW/MID 90S AS DEWPOINTS GET INTO THE UPPER 60S.
MODELS HINT AT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING BENEATH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN BY MIDWEEK THAT
COULD CREEP NORTH AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE, POSSIBLY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTH BY THU/FRI. CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A FEATURE
IS LOW HOWEVER.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN THE DEPENDENCY ON THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 710 PM SUNDAY...
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS IS PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAY THIS
EVENING. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS COULD TRICKLE NEAR OR
ACROSS KFAY THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES GIVEN LATEST TRENDS IN
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL THOUGH,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z TUE, VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ARE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THU, UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY RETURN NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/HARTFIELD
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