939
FXUS62 KRAH 020201
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE PUSHING EAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS
WESTERN NC INTO SOUTHERN VA, WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
SSW INTO THE CAROLINAS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC. LOOKING ALOFT, WE CONTINUE TO BE AT THE BASE OF A
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION TRACKING SE THROUGH NC. RADAR ONLY DEPICTS A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TN INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF
NC, AND THE MORE VIGOROUS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN HAS NOW LARGELY PUSHED SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC AND IS ONLY
CLIPPING SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY. THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER
WITH RECENT RUNS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, AND
WHILE SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES STILL DEPICT 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE,
THE TYPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ARE
ALSO SETTING IN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SO TRIMMED BACK
THE AREA OF POPS THROUGH 06Z TO JUST OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES, AND
IT IS ONLY IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE. MODIFIED FORECAST
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST OBS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH
WHERE THERE IS NOW RAIN-COOLED AIR. AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SE
THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
OH VALLEY, CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN.
CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE FAR SE, BUT
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
CONCERNS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER-50S FAR NORTH TO
LOWER-60S FAR SOUTH, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
* PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST ON MONDAY, WITH ONE LAST SHORTWAVE CLIPPING THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
APPEAR TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, AND ALSO SUGGEST
MIXING OF DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN NBM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
* CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THU TO
SAT
* STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND
UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 1400M. HIGHS WILL
CREEP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK
FRI/SAT IN THE LOW/MID 90S AS DEWPOINTS GET INTO THE UPPER 60S.
MODELS HINT AT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING BENEATH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN BY MIDWEEK THAT
COULD CREEP NORTH AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE, POSSIBLY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTH BY THU/FRI. CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A FEATURE
IS LOW HOWEVER.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN THE DEPENDENCY ON THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 710 PM SUNDAY...
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS IS PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAY THIS
EVENING. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS COULD TRICKLE NEAR OR
ACROSS KFAY THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. DECIDED TO REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES GIVEN LATEST TRENDS IN
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. OVERALL THOUGH,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z TUE, VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ARE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THU, UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY RETURN NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DANCO
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...LUCHETTI/HARTFIELD
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