698
FXUS62 KRAH 020449
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1250 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKS OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THEN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS
WESTERN NC INTO SOUTHERN VA, WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
SSW INTO THE CAROLINAS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC. LOOKING ALOFT, WE CONTINUE TO BE AT THE BASE OF A
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION TRACKING SE THROUGH NC. RADAR ONLY DEPICTS A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM TN INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF
NC, AND THE MORE VIGOROUS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN HAS NOW LARGELY PUSHED SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC AND IS ONLY
CLIPPING SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY. THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER
WITH RECENT RUNS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, AND
WHILE SPC MESOANALYSIS DOES STILL DEPICT 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE,
THE TYPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ARE
ALSO SETTING IN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SO TRIMMED BACK
THE AREA OF POPS THROUGH 06Z TO JUST OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES, AND
IT IS ONLY IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE. MODIFIED FORECAST
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST OBS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH
WHERE THERE IS NOW RAIN-COOLED AIR. AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SE
THROUGH CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
OH VALLEY, CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD LESSEN WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN.
CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE FAR SE, BUT
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG
CONCERNS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER-50S FAR NORTH TO
LOWER-60S FAR SOUTH, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
* PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT
EAST ON MONDAY, WITH ONE LAST SHORTWAVE CLIPPING THE NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
APPEAR TOO DRY AND STABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, AND ALSO SUGGEST
MIXING OF DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN NBM INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
* CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THU TO
SAT
* STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND
UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 1400M. HIGHS WILL
CREEP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK
FRI/SAT IN THE LOW/MID 90S AS DEWPOINTS GET INTO THE UPPER 60S.
MODELS HINT AT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING BENEATH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN BY MIDWEEK THAT
COULD CREEP NORTH AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE, POSSIBLY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTH BY THU/FRI. CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A FEATURE
IS LOW HOWEVER.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN THE DEPENDENCY ON THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT ALL SITES, HOWEVER AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE A BIT LESS CERTAIN FROM NOW UNTIL 12Z, ESP AT
RDU/FAY/RWI. CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT RWI/FAY FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO EARLY THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED
LOCAL GUSTS TO 20-30 KT AND SHORT DOWNPOURS. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING, ISOLATED PATCHES OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS
HAVE ALREADY FORMED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE N, AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BRIEF WINDOW
OF SCT-BKN IFR-LEVEL CLOUDS AND IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT RDU
06Z-09Z, AT FAY/RWI 07Z-12Z, ESSENTIALLY UNTIL DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NNW. INT/GSO WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTSIDE OF THIS UNCERTAIN RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, WE'LL SEE
PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MID MORNING, ESP ACROSS THE S
AND E PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY FAIR TO CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE GUSTS EXPECTED.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TUE, VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDDAY THU, UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN IN THE SE LATE
THU AND AREAWIDE, BUT MAINLY E, ON FRIDAY. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...DANCO
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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