305
FXUS62 KRAH 020619
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
220 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKS OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THEN WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...
* APART FROM ISOLATED PREDAWN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH, EXPECT PLEASANT
AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.
THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS W AND N NC AT THIS
HOUR, WITH DEWPOINTS TO ITS SOUTH STILL MILD, MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS JUST A FEW DEGREES OR LESS
WITHIN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION HAS LARGELY
PUSHED E OF THE CWA, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST
ACROSS THE S, WHERE 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND ELEVATED
SBCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG LINGER AMIDST GROWING CINH. LATEST GOES
LAYER WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT SURGING THROUGH CENTRAL
NC, WHICH SHOULD SQUELCH ANY FURTHER DEEP CONVECTION DESPITE THE
PLENTIFUL NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE. WEAK SHEARED VORTICITY ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN E NOAM LONGWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ONE LAST POTENT WAVE NOTED OVER SE
ONTARIO IN WV IMAGERY IS ON PACE TO SWING SE THROUGH THE
CHESAPEAKE/DELMARVA/VA TIDEWATER THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BY THAT TIME,
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SPARSE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WHILE AT THE SURFACE,
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED TO OUR S AND SE, WITH A NW
DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S,
VALUES A BIT LOWER THAN NBM GUIDANCE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS MORE REPRESENTATIVE IN THIS SORT OF
PATTERN WITH GOOD MIXING. OVERALL, EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST. THIS INSOLATION WILL TAKE
THE EDGE OFF THE BELOW NORMAL (BY 25-30 M) LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES,
FAVORING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH PLEASANT LOW
HUMIDITY AS OUR RH BOTTOMS OUT AT 28-38%. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS E WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER VA/NC, WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. -GIH
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...
* CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THU TO
SAT
* STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND
UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE WEEK WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 1400M. HIGHS WILL
CREEP BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK
FRI/SAT IN THE LOW/MID 90S AS DEWPOINTS GET INTO THE UPPER 60S.
MODELS HINT AT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING BENEATH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN BY MIDWEEK THAT
COULD CREEP NORTH AND AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE, POSSIBLY INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SOUTH BY THU/FRI. CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A FEATURE
IS LOW HOWEVER.
A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN THE DEPENDENCY ON THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT ALL SITES, HOWEVER AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE A BIT LESS CERTAIN FROM NOW UNTIL 12Z, ESP AT
RDU/FAY/RWI. CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT RWI/FAY FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO EARLY THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY PRODUCING ISOLATED
LOCAL GUSTS TO 20-30 KT AND SHORT DOWNPOURS. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR EARLY THIS MORNING, ISOLATED PATCHES OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS
HAVE ALREADY FORMED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE N, AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BRIEF WINDOW
OF SCT-BKN IFR-LEVEL CLOUDS AND IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT RDU
06Z-09Z, AT FAY/RWI 07Z-12Z, ESSENTIALLY UNTIL DRIER AIR SPILLS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NNW. INT/GSO WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTSIDE OF THIS UNCERTAIN RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, WE'LL SEE
PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MID MORNING, ESP ACROSS THE S
AND E PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY FAIR TO CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE GUSTS EXPECTED.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z TUE, VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDDAY THU, UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN IN THE SE LATE
THU AND AREAWIDE, BUT MAINLY E, ON FRIDAY. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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