249
FXUS62 KRAH 021037
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
640 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL ZONE SITTING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING,
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY, STARTING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM MONDAY...
* APART FROM ISOLATED PREDAWN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH, EXPECT PLEASANT
AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.
THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS W AND N NC AT THIS
HOUR, WITH DEWPOINTS TO ITS SOUTH STILL MILD, MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S, AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS JUST A FEW DEGREES OR LESS
WITHIN LIGHT SURFACE FLOW. THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION HAS LARGELY
PUSHED E OF THE CWA, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSIST
ACROSS THE S, WHERE 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND ELEVATED
SBCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG LINGER AMIDST GROWING CINH. LATEST GOES
LAYER WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT SURGING THROUGH CENTRAL
NC, WHICH SHOULD SQUELCH ANY FURTHER DEEP CONVECTION DESPITE THE
PLENTIFUL NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE. WEAK SHEARED VORTICITY ALOFT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN E NOAM LONGWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ONE LAST POTENT WAVE NOTED OVER SE
ONTARIO IN WV IMAGERY IS ON PACE TO SWING SE THROUGH THE
CHESAPEAKE/DELMARVA/VA TIDEWATER THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BY THAT TIME,
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SPARSE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WHILE AT THE SURFACE,
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED TO OUR S AND SE, WITH A NW
DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S,
VALUES A BIT LOWER THAN NBM GUIDANCE AND MORE IN LINE WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS MORE REPRESENTATIVE IN THIS SORT OF
PATTERN WITH GOOD MIXING. OVERALL, EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH
ONLY A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST. THIS INSOLATION WILL TAKE
THE EDGE OFF THE BELOW NORMAL (BY 25-30 M) LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES,
FAVORING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH PLEASANT LOW
HUMIDITY AS OUR RH BOTTOMS OUT AT 28-38%. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
SHIFTS E WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER VA/NC, WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. -GIH
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...
* LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER VA/NC EARLY TUE WILL DRIFT E AND OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT, WHILE ALOFT, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY REBOUND
OVER NC AND TO THE SE, AS A ~590 DM ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL ENSURE DEEPLY DRY AIR WITH HIGH WARMTH AND STABILITY
ALOFT, AND MINIMAL THERMAL OR MOISTURE ADVECTION, ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN THE ONSET OF A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO OUR SE, AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY
TO REBOUND FROM TODAY'S 40S, INTO THE 50S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO SEASONABLE, MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S. WITH THE SLOWLY RISING
DEWPOINTS, DESPITE THE WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES, LOW TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT'S, IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...
* CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THU
THROUGH SUN. A LOW-END HEAT RISK FRI TO SUN.
* DIURNAL STORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SAT AND SUN
AN ANOMALOUS 591-DM RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WED INTO FRI. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH FRI. CONTINUED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE PLACE, WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES RISING ABOVE NORMAL TO 1410-
1420M, HIGHEST ON FRI AND SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL THUS BE ON THE
UPWARD TREND TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH MID/UPPER 80S WED/THU AND
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FRI AND SAT. MUGGY WEATHER, AS NOTED BY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S, COMMENCE FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A LOW-END HEAT RISK IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME WITH WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SUCCESSIVE WARM DAYS.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SOMEWHAT MIXED ON HOW A SYSTEM OVER
THE NE GULF AND FL WED MAY EVOLVE AS IT TRIES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE
AND TRACK EITHER INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS OR STAY JUST
OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THU/FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, IT COULD SLOW THE
PROGRESS OF ENERGY TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY AND LIMIT
STORM CHANCES FRI.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A PERTURBED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SETUP
AMID BROAD TROUGHING TO OUR WEST, FAVORING A WARM/MOIST W TO WSW
FLOW. WHILE SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WOULD SAY THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME SAT, THE MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS KEEP THE FRONT HUNG UP TO OUR WEST, WITH A LEE
TROUGH IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, FOCUSED IN THE AFTN/EVE TIME FRAME. SINCE THE DETAILS ARE
NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT, STORM CHANCES FOR NOW ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT ABOVE CLIMO IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. SEVERAL OF THE
ML/AI GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A SEVERE POTENTIAL SAT/SUN GIVEN
INCREASING 25-30 KT DEEP SHEAR SO THIS WOULD BEAR WATCHING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SUN.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 640 AM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT ALL SITES, HOWEVER AVIATION
CONDITIONS ARE A BIT LESS CERTAIN UNTIL THEN, ESP AT FAY/RWI. A
FRONT EXTENDING OVER FAR N AND W NC IS SEPARATING DRIER AIR TO ITS N
FROM MORE MOIST AIR TO THE S, AND AREAS S OF THIS FRONT ARE SEEING
PATCHES OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG, INCLUDING NEAR FAY/RWI. UNTIL
THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH THESE SITES, PERIODS OF POOR AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE,
WE'LL SEE PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MID MORNING, ESP
ACROSS THE S AND E PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, FOLLOWED BY FAIR
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE GUSTS EXPECTED.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z TUE, VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH MIDDAY THU, UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. A RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN IN THE SE LATE
THU AND AREAWIDE, BUT MAINLY E, ON FRIDAY. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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