363
FXUS62 KRAH 021748
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
148 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN CONTINUE TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO NC
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...
*HAZY, DRY, AND MILD/COOL
ANCHORED BY A CYCLONE ALONG THE QC/NL BORDER, A HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL PROGRESS EWD AND OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD,
WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY, GREAT
LAKES, AND ON/QC. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT OVER CNTL NC.
AT THE SURFACE, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT, EVIDENT IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONAL AND SATELLITE AND LTX RADAR DATA OVER SRN BRUNSWICK
CO. NC AND HORRY CO. SC, WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH BASIN THROUGH 12Z TUE. FOLLOWING, 1019 MB CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WV THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS THROUGH THE SAME TIME, BENEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE, WITH ASSOCIATED DRY
AND SEASONABLY MILD/COOL NLY FLOW DIRECTED OVER CNTL NC TODAY, THEN
CALM TONIGHT.
THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SENSIBLE WEATHER RELATED TO THE PATTERN
DESCRIBED WAS MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING, WITH LOW HUMIDITY, HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S-LWR 80S, AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TONIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND HRRR SMOKE
SIMULATION DATA INDICATE CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE, OVER ALL BUT FAR
NERN NC THIS MORNING, WILL GRADUALLY EDGE SWD AND OUT OF CNTL NC
THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNTIL IT DOES SO, RELATED SKY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN HAZY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...
* LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER VA/NC EARLY TUE WILL DRIFT E AND OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT, WHILE ALOFT, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY REBOUND
OVER NC AND TO THE SE, AS A ~590 DM ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL ENSURE DEEPLY DRY AIR WITH HIGH WARMTH AND STABILITY
ALOFT, AND MINIMAL THERMAL OR MOISTURE ADVECTION, ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN THE ONSET OF A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO OUR SE, AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY
TO REBOUND FROM TODAY'S 40S, INTO THE 50S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO SEASONABLE, MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S. WITH THE SLOWLY RISING
DEWPOINTS, DESPITE THE WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES, LOW TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT'S, IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...
* CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THU
THROUGH SUN. A LOW-END HEAT RISK FRI TO SUN.
* DIURNAL STORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST SAT AND SUN
AN ANOMALOUS 591-DM RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WED INTO FRI. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OFFSHORE AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
TOWARD BERMUDA THROUGH FRI. CONTINUED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS WILL
TAKE PLACE, WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES RISING ABOVE NORMAL TO 1410-
1420M, HIGHEST ON FRI AND SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL THUS BE ON THE
UPWARD TREND TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH MID/UPPER 80S WED/THU AND
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FRI AND SAT. MUGGY WEATHER, AS NOTED BY HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S, COMMENCE FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A LOW-END HEAT RISK IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME WITH WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS AND SUCCESSIVE WARM DAYS.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SOMEWHAT MIXED ON HOW A SYSTEM OVER
THE NE GULF AND FL WED MAY EVOLVE AS IT TRIES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE
AND TRACK EITHER INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS OR STAY JUST
OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LOW SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THU/FRI.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, IT COULD SLOW THE
PROGRESS OF ENERGY TRYING TO APPROACH FROM THE OH VALLEY AND LIMIT
STORM CHANCES FRI.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, A PERTURBED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SETUP
AMID BROAD TROUGHING TO OUR WEST, FAVORING A WARM/MOIST W TO WSW
FLOW. WHILE SOME ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WOULD SAY THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOMETIME SAT, THE MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS KEEP THE FRONT HUNG UP TO OUR WEST, WITH A LEE
TROUGH IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, FOCUSED IN THE AFTN/EVE TIME FRAME. SINCE THE DETAILS ARE
NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT, STORM CHANCES FOR NOW ARE FORECAST TO BE
SOMEWHAT ABOVE CLIMO IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. SEVERAL OF THE
ML/AI GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A SEVERE POTENTIAL SAT/SUN GIVEN
INCREASING 25-30 KT DEEP SHEAR SO THIS WOULD BEAR WATCHING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SUN.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WILL FAVOR A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS OVER CNTL NC THROUGH TUE. THERE MAY,
HOWEVER, BE PATCHES OF VERY SHALLOW RADIATION FOG AND/OR STRATUS
MAINLY SOUTH OF FAY, OVER NERN SC AND SERN NC, TUE MORNING. SKIES
WILL OTHERWISE BE MAINLY CLEAR BUT HAZY, OWING TO BANDS OF CANADIAN
WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM AND TRACK ALONG
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS WEEK, DURING WHICH TIME
SHOWERS/STORMS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
HALF OF NC, INCLUDING PRIMARILY AT RWI AND FAY ON FRI. A LEE/PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MAY THEN FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
CNTL NC SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...MWS
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