601
FXUS62 KRAH 021936
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN CONTINUE TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO NC
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1005 AM MONDAY...
*HAZY, DRY, AND MILD/COOL
ANCHORED BY A CYCLONE ALONG THE QC/NL BORDER, A HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE ERN US WILL PROGRESS EWD AND OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD,
WHILE AN UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY, GREAT
LAKES, AND ON/QC. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RESULT OVER CNTL NC.
AT THE SURFACE, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT, EVIDENT IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONAL AND SATELLITE AND LTX RADAR DATA OVER SRN BRUNSWICK
CO. NC AND HORRY CO. SC, WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH BASIN THROUGH 12Z TUE. FOLLOWING, 1019 MB CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WV THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY SEWD
ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS THROUGH THE SAME TIME, BENEATH THE
AFOREMENTIONED RISING HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE, WITH ASSOCIATED DRY
AND SEASONABLY MILD/COOL NLY FLOW DIRECTED OVER CNTL NC TODAY, THEN
CALM TONIGHT.
THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SENSIBLE WEATHER RELATED TO THE PATTERN
DESCRIBED WAS MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS MORNING, WITH LOW HUMIDITY, HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S-LWR 80S, AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TONIGHT. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND HRRR SMOKE
SIMULATION DATA INDICATE CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE, OVER ALL BUT FAR
NERN NC THIS MORNING, WILL GRADUALLY EDGE SWD AND OUT OF CNTL NC
THROUGH THIS EVENING. UNTIL IT DOES SO, RELATED SKY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN HAZY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...
* LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER VA/NC EARLY TUE WILL DRIFT E AND OFFSHORE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT, WHILE ALOFT, MID LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY REBOUND
OVER NC AND TO THE SE, AS A ~590 DM ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL ENSURE DEEPLY DRY AIR WITH HIGH WARMTH AND STABILITY
ALOFT, AND MINIMAL THERMAL OR MOISTURE ADVECTION, ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN THE ONSET OF A LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO OUR SE, AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY
TO REBOUND FROM TODAY'S 40S, INTO THE 50S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO SEASONABLE, MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S. WITH THE SLOWLY RISING
DEWPOINTS, DESPITE THE WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES, LOW TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT'S, IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. -GIH
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...
UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED: AN ANOMALOUS MID-UPPER RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE THAT GRADUALLY
LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING UPPER WAVE, A STRONG LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY: SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ANCHOR OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY PROMOTING ANOTHER DRY DAY. FLOW WILL TURN MORE ESELY IN
THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RELATIVELY WARM COMPARED TO
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE (FROM THE GULF) WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND A
SFC WAVE/LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE UP THE GA/SC COASTLINE. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE NON-TROPICAL AT ONSET. HOWEVER, THE NHC
MENTIONS THAT IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE, IT COULD DEVELOP SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY FRIDAY. REGARDLESS, THIS FEATURE MAY
PROMOTE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY (HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST). MID TO UPPER 80S ARE
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THERE'S SOME DETAILS TO BE FLUSHED OUT, BUT
GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT HOT AND WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. AS SUCH, PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. MACHINE LEARNING
OUTLOOKS ARE SUGGESTING SATURDAY COULD ALSO FEATURE POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER. WILL PROVIDE UPDATES AS DETAILS GET CLEARER. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR WILL FAVOR A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF VFR CONDITIONS OVER CNTL NC THROUGH TUE. THERE MAY,
HOWEVER, BE PATCHES OF VERY SHALLOW RADIATION FOG AND/OR STRATUS
MAINLY SOUTH OF FAY, OVER NERN SC AND SERN NC, TUE MORNING. SKIES
WILL OTHERWISE BE MAINLY CLEAR BUT HAZY, OWING TO BANDS OF CANADIAN
WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM AND TRACK ALONG
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS WEEK, DURING WHICH TIME
SHOWERS/STORMS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
HALF OF NC, INCLUDING PRIMARILY AT RWI AND FAY ON FRI. A LEE/PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MAY THEN FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
CNTL NC SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...MWS
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