693
FXUS62 KRAH 030207
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AND OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN CONTINUE TO EXTEND WESTWARD INTO NC
THROUGH THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1005 PM MONDAY...
- COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT.
A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST VIRGINIA. AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH VIRGINIA, THE CANADIAN SMOKE THAT WAS
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH, POTENTIALLY
OUT OF THE REGION, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN WHERE IT MAY REMAIN
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH
CALM WINDS AND OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, RESULTING IN STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THUS,
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S TONIGHT, WITH UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST SPOTS IN THE NORTH.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM MONDAY...
SYNOPTIC MID/UPR-LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
THROUGH ERN CANADA. UNDERLYING, CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED INITIALLY NEAR THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY AND
DRIFT OFFSHORE, WHILE THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL EXTEND WWD ACROSS
NC. THE AIRMASS OVER CNTL NC WILL CONSEQUENTLY MODIFY, WITH HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES 5-10 F WARMER/MILDER THAN THOSE OF MON (IN THE 80S
AND MID 50S-LWR 60S F) AND ASSOCIATED RH 5-10 PERCENT HIGHER (30-
40%). DESPITE DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED GENERALLY CLOUD-FREE
SKIES, PERIODS OF HAZE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY PERSIST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 335 PM MONDAY...
UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED: AN ANOMALOUS MID-UPPER RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE THAT GRADUALLY
LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
BEHIND THIS DEPARTING UPPER WAVE, A STRONG LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY: SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ANCHOR OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY PROMOTING ANOTHER DRY DAY. FLOW WILL TURN MORE ESELY IN
THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RELATIVELY WARM COMPARED TO
MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S IS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE (FROM THE GULF) WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND A
SFC WAVE/LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE UP THE GA/SC COASTLINE. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE NON-TROPICAL AT ONSET. HOWEVER, THE NHC
MENTIONS THAT IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE, IT COULD DEVELOP SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY FRIDAY. REGARDLESS, THIS FEATURE MAY
PROMOTE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY (HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST). MID TO UPPER 80S ARE
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THERE'S SOME DETAILS TO BE FLUSHED OUT, BUT
GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT HOT AND WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. AS SUCH, PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. MACHINE LEARNING
OUTLOOKS ARE SUGGESTING SATURDAY COULD ALSO FEATURE POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER. WILL PROVIDE UPDATES AS DETAILS GET CLEARER. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S LOOK POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 745 PM MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES IS BRINGING HAZY SKIES TO THE REGION,
WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO TOMORROW, BUT SKIES WILL OTHERWISE BE MOSTLY
CLEAR. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SIGNAL FOR SHALLOW FOG OR VERY
LOW STRATUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR SE NC. IT CAN'T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT FAY AND RWI, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT
REACHING THAT FAR INLAND IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT, TURNING S/SE TOMORROW BUT
REMAINING LIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM AND TRACK ALONG
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS WEEK, DURING WHICH TIME
SHOWERS/STORMS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN
HALF OF NC, INCLUDING PRIMARILY AT RWI AND FAY ON FRI. A LEE/PRE-
FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH MAY THEN FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
CNTL NC SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...HELOCK
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...DANCO/MWS
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