457
FXUS62 KRAH 030648
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
248 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL PUSH
EAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD IN THE UPPER LEVELS, RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 205 AM TUESDAY...
* FAIR, DRY, AND SEASONABLE TODAY, PERHAPS A LITTLE HAZY IN THE WEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE NE/SE VA AT LAST ANALYSIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT,
EXTENDING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS NC WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.
ALOFT, A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY NE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, ARCING NORTH OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. PW WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL, WITH DRY AND STABLE MID LEVELS, SO
DESPITE AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE MON, CLOUDS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO A FEW FLAT
CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. RECENT HRRR SMOKE PROGS DO DEPICT SOME
NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE SPREADING BACK INTO THE S AND W CWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN A SOMEWHAT HAZY DAY ESP ACROSS OUR
S/W. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CREEPING UPWARD AND DECENT
INSOLATION TODAY, HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL, 82-89. EXPECT LOWS OF 56-64 TONIGHT UNDER FAIR SKIES. -GIH
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
* RAIN CHANCES HAVE SPED UP, WITH RAIN NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WED
NIGHT.
WITH NEAR UNIVERSALITY, THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING FASTER TO
LIFT THE NE GULF LOW NNE THROUGH INTERIOR GA INTO THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED NIGHT, NUDGING THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR
NE. ACCORDINGLY, THE MODELS ARE HASTENING THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS
SPREADING IN FROM THE S, INCREASINGLY OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS WED WITH
STEADILY LOWERING BASES THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST WED/WED NIGHT, BUT SHOULD START TO
WEAKEN AS THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW INDUCES SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS NEAR COASTAL GA/SC, WHICH WILL IN TURN ENHANCE SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NC, ESP SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC, WITH A
CORRESPONDING UPTICK AND DEEPENING OF MOIST UPGLIDE IN THESE AREAS,
ESP WED NIGHT. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA WED
EVENING, THEN INTO ALL BUT THE NORTHERN THIRD WED NIGHT. BUT IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER
FORECASTS, AND WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE A SOLID AREA OF
RAIN COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THU. WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY BALANCED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS, EXPECT SIMILAR HIGHS, 82-87, FOLLOWED BY MILD LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ARRIVES. -GIH
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 248 AM TUESDAY...
* MODEL SPREAD REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THU/FRI WITH UPPER-LOW
TRACKING NE OUT OF THE GULF
* WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS SAT THRU MON WITH UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
THU-FRI: ANOMALOUS RIDGING FROM WED WILL RETREAT SLIGHTLY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE NE GULF TRACKING ENE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THU AND MOVING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SOMETIME LATE FRI. NHC MENTIONS IF IT STAYS
OFFSHORE IT COULD DEVELOP SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE DEVIL
IS IN THE DETAILS AND MODEL SPREAD IS STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH ON ITS
OVERALL EVOLUTION. THE GFS/NAM ARE PERHAPS THE FURTHEST INLAND WITH
THE SURFACE LOW, WHILE THE EC/CMC HUG THE SYSTEM JUST ALONG THE
SC/NC COASTS OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES, HIGHS THU
COULD BE TRICKY. A FURTHER INLAND TRACK WOULD MEAN HIGHER SHOWER
CHANCES AND LOWER HIGHS PERHAPS NEAR 80, BUT A FURTHER EAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES EAST OF US-1 AND ALONG I-95 WITH
WARMER HIGHS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE MID 80S. FOR NOW
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BUT KEPT THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD OVER THE
EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF
THE WETTER TREND CONTINUES. ON FRI, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH GUIDANCE DEPICTING THE LOW
DEPARTING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE AREA-WIDE WITH ENERGY ALOFT
STREAMING EAST IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S.
SAT-MON: A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS PERSIST AND HIGHS HOVER IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THERE IS BROAD CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLE
AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT BROAD TROUGHING AT MID-LEVELS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. SEVERAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY ARE FORECAST TO TRACK
INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON A
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING SAT, BRINGING A GOOD THREAT OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EVENING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
STILL MIXED ON WHETHER THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH SUN, WITH SOME
MEMBERS BRINGING IT INTO SC AND OTHERS STALLING IT OVER THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WERE KEPT IN THE
FORECAST SUN AND MON, ESPECIALLY GIVEN MODELS SHOWING AN EVEN DEEPER
TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON THAT WOULD
BRING INCREASED LIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. LASTLY, ML/AI GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK SAT-MON GIVEN FORECAST
PARAMETERS INDICATING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WITHIN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ISOLATED FOG
PATCHES IN THE FAR E 09Z-12Z THIS MORNING, AND WHILE THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THESE COULD REACH FAY/RWI, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THESE TAFS, BUT WILL MONITOR. ELSEWHERE, THE
SWATH OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES THAT WAS
NOTED ON GOES GEOCOLOR IMAGERY ESP OVER S AND E NC LATE MON IS
EXPECTED TO THIN OUT AND SHIFT TO OUR S THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT IS
LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK INTO S AND W SECTIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 6SM
AFTER 16Z AT INT/GSO AND PERHAPS RDU. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCT CLOUDS
BASED ~5KFT AND ~25KFT ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN
PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SSE OR SE UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 18Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z WED, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR POCKETS OF SUB-VFR FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE SW PIEDMONT 09Z-12Z WED MORNING,
POTENTIALLY REACHING INT/GSO. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WED, ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY, FOLLOWED BY LOWERING CLOUD BASES FROM
S TO N WED EVENING, AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT, LASTING INTO
EARLY FRI. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND AVIATION RESTRICTIONS
WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WILL BE AT FAY, BUT A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE. AFTER A BRIEF PRECIP LULL FRI
AFTERNOON/NIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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