395
FXUS62 KRAH 031418
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1018 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
INTO NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST, THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE AND AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH DATA
DEPICT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM
THE LWR GREAT LAKES SEWD AND ALONG THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,
WHICH HRRR SMOKE FIELDS DO NOT APPEAR TO INITIALIZE OR SIMULATE WELL
AGAIN THIS MORNING, SMOKE ALSO REMAINS EVIDENT IN THOSE PRODUCTS,
AND ALSO IN AREA WEBCAMS, THROUGHOUT CNTL NC. ASIDE FROM INCLUDING
ASSOCIATED HAZE IN THE FORECAST AREA-WIDE, NO OTHER APPRECIABLE
CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE GRIDDED FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 03 2025/
* FAIR, DRY, AND SEASONABLE TODAY, PERHAPS A LITTLE HAZY IN THE WEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE NE/SE VA AT LAST ANALYSIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT,
EXTENDING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS NC WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.
ALOFT, A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY NE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, ARCING NORTH OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. PW WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL, WITH DRY AND STABLE MID LEVELS, SO
DESPITE AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE MON, CLOUDS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO A FEW FLAT
CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. RECENT HRRR SMOKE PROGS DO DEPICT SOME
NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE SPREADING BACK INTO THE S AND W CWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN A SOMEWHAT HAZY DAY ESP ACROSS OUR
S/W. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CREEPING UPWARD AND DECENT
INSOLATION TODAY, HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL, 82-89. EXPECT LOWS OF 56-64 TONIGHT UNDER FAIR SKIES. -GIH
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
* RAIN CHANCES HAVE SPED UP, WITH RAIN NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WED
NIGHT.
WITH NEAR UNIVERSALITY, THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING FASTER TO
LIFT THE NE GULF LOW NNE THROUGH INTERIOR GA INTO THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED NIGHT, NUDGING THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR
NE. ACCORDINGLY, THE MODELS ARE HASTENING THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS
SPREADING IN FROM THE S, INCREASINGLY OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS WED WITH
STEADILY LOWERING BASES THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST WED/WED NIGHT, BUT SHOULD START TO
WEAKEN AS THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW INDUCES SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS NEAR COASTAL GA/SC, WHICH WILL IN TURN ENHANCE SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NC, ESP SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC, WITH A
CORRESPONDING UPTICK AND DEEPENING OF MOIST UPGLIDE IN THESE AREAS,
ESP WED NIGHT. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA WED
EVENING, THEN INTO ALL BUT THE NORTHERN THIRD WED NIGHT. BUT IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER
FORECASTS, AND WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE A SOLID AREA OF
RAIN COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THU. WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY BALANCED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS, EXPECT SIMILAR HIGHS, 82-87, FOLLOWED BY MILD LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ARRIVES. -GIH
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 248 AM TUESDAY...
* MODEL SPREAD REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THU/FRI WITH UPPER-LOW
TRACKING NE OUT OF THE GULF
* WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS SAT THRU MON WITH UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
THU-FRI: ANOMALOUS RIDGING FROM WED WILL RETREAT SLIGHTLY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE NE GULF TRACKING ENE TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THU AND MOVING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SOMETIME LATE FRI. NHC MENTIONS IF IT STAYS
OFFSHORE IT COULD DEVELOP SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE DEVIL
IS IN THE DETAILS AND MODEL SPREAD IS STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH ON ITS
OVERALL EVOLUTION. THE GFS/NAM ARE PERHAPS THE FURTHEST INLAND WITH
THE SURFACE LOW, WHILE THE EC/CMC HUG THE SYSTEM JUST ALONG THE
SC/NC COASTS OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES, HIGHS THU
COULD BE TRICKY. A FURTHER INLAND TRACK WOULD MEAN HIGHER SHOWER
CHANCES AND LOWER HIGHS PERHAPS NEAR 80, BUT A FURTHER EAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE BEST SHOWER CHANCES EAST OF US-1 AND ALONG I-95 WITH
WARMER HIGHS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE MID 80S. FOR NOW
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BUT KEPT THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD OVER THE
EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF
THE WETTER TREND CONTINUES. ON FRI, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE
CLOSER TO THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH GUIDANCE DEPICTING THE LOW
DEPARTING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE AREA-WIDE WITH ENERGY ALOFT
STREAMING EAST IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S.
SAT-MON: A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS PERSIST AND HIGHS HOVER IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THERE IS BROAD CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLE
AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT BROAD TROUGHING AT MID-LEVELS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. SEVERAL RIPPLES OF ENERGY ARE FORECAST TO TRACK
INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON A
SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING SAT, BRINGING A GOOD THREAT OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EVENING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
STILL MIXED ON WHETHER THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH SUN, WITH SOME
MEMBERS BRINGING IT INTO SC AND OTHERS STALLING IT OVER THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WERE KEPT IN THE
FORECAST SUN AND MON, ESPECIALLY GIVEN MODELS SHOWING AN EVEN DEEPER
TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON THAT WOULD
BRING INCREASED LIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. LASTLY, ML/AI GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL SEVERE RISK SAT-MON GIVEN FORECAST
PARAMETERS INDICATING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WITHIN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 625 AM TUESDAY...
APART FROM PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR EAST THAT WILL AFFECT RWI EARLY
THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. AT RWI, VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO SWING WIDELY BETWEEN VFR AND IFR/LIFR THROUGH 13Z
OR SO AS ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG PASS NEAR THE AIRFIELD, HOWEVER
THESE FOG PATCHES ARE LIKELY TO STAY E OF FAY THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, THE SWATH OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT WAS NOTED ON GOES GEOCOLOR IMAGERY OVER S AND E NC
LATE MON HAS THINNED OUT AND SHIFTED TO OUR S, BUT IT'S EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO S AND W SECTIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 6SM AFTER 16Z AT
INT/GSO AND PERHAPS RDU/FAY. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCT CLOUDS BASED ~5KFT
AND ~25KFT ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, BUT
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR (MOSTLY IFR/LIFR) CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE W PIEDMONT AFTER 09Z, INCLUDING AT INT/GSO.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN
PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SSE OR SE UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 18Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED, THE EXPECTED POCKETS OF SUB-VFR FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE W PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND IMPROVE
THROUGH 14Z WED MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WED, ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY, FOLLOWED BY LOWERING CLOUD BASES FROM S TO
N WED EVENING, AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT, LASTING INTO EARLY
FRI. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND AVIATION RESTRICTIONS WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WILL BE AT FAY, BUT A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE. AFTER A BRIEF PRECIP LULL FRI
AFTERNOON/NIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KREN
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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