943
FXUS62 KRAH 031746
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
146 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
INTO NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST, THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE AND AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH DATA
DEPICT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM
THE LWR GREAT LAKES SEWD AND ALONG THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,
WHICH HRRR SMOKE FIELDS DO NOT APPEAR TO INITIALIZE OR SIMULATE WELL
AGAIN THIS MORNING, SMOKE ALSO REMAINS EVIDENT IN THOSE PRODUCTS,
AND ALSO IN AREA WEBCAMS, THROUGHOUT CNTL NC. ASIDE FROM INCLUDING
ASSOCIATED HAZE IN THE FORECAST AREA-WIDE, NO OTHER APPRECIABLE
CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE GRIDDED FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 03 2025/
* FAIR, DRY, AND SEASONABLE TODAY, PERHAPS A LITTLE HAZY IN THE WEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE NE/SE VA AT LAST ANALYSIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT,
EXTENDING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS NC WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.
ALOFT, A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY NE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, ARCING NORTH OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. PW WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL, WITH DRY AND STABLE MID LEVELS, SO
DESPITE AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE MON, CLOUDS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO A FEW FLAT
CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. RECENT HRRR SMOKE PROGS DO DEPICT SOME
NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE SPREADING BACK INTO THE S AND W CWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN A SOMEWHAT HAZY DAY ESP ACROSS OUR
S/W. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CREEPING UPWARD AND DECENT
INSOLATION TODAY, HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL, 82-89. EXPECT LOWS OF 56-64 TONIGHT UNDER FAIR SKIES. -GIH
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
* RAIN CHANCES HAVE SPED UP, WITH RAIN NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WED
NIGHT.
WITH NEAR UNIVERSALITY, THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING FASTER TO
LIFT THE NE GULF LOW NNE THROUGH INTERIOR GA INTO THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS THROUGH WED NIGHT, NUDGING THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR
NE. ACCORDINGLY, THE MODELS ARE HASTENING THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS
SPREADING IN FROM THE S, INCREASINGLY OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS WED WITH
STEADILY LOWERING BASES THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST WED/WED NIGHT, BUT SHOULD START TO
WEAKEN AS THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW INDUCES SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS NEAR COASTAL GA/SC, WHICH WILL IN TURN ENHANCE SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER NC, ESP SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NC, WITH A
CORRESPONDING UPTICK AND DEEPENING OF MOIST UPGLIDE IN THESE AREAS,
ESP WED NIGHT. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA WED
EVENING, THEN INTO ALL BUT THE NORTHERN THIRD WED NIGHT. BUT IF
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE, POPS WILL NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN LATER
FORECASTS, AND WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE A SOLID AREA OF
RAIN COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK THU. WITH
THICKNESSES A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY BALANCED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS, EXPECT SIMILAR HIGHS, 82-87, FOLLOWED BY MILD LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND RAIN ARRIVES. -GIH
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED: AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
GULF WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE THAT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS DEPARTING
UPPER WAVE, A STRONG LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE (FROM THE GULF) WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND A
SFC WAVE/LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE UP THE GA/SC COASTLINE. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT TO HOW MUCH
RAIN WE MAY SEE FROM THIS SYSTEM, AS SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SFC LOW
AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWAT OF ~1.5 TO 2 INCHES; ~140% OF
NORMAL) ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. OTHER GUIDANCE TREKS THE LOW AND
DEEP MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE OUTPUT, THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND 10TH PERCENTILE IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1 AND 1.5 INCHES (WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF OF A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST). THUS, THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WRT TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE/LOW AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE
MIGHT SEE. REGARDLESS, IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY HAZARDS RELATED TO
THIS THURSDAY SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BE POSSIBLE LOW-END CHANCE FOR
FLOODING IN OUR COASTAL PLAIN AREAS AT THIS POINT. GIVEN NELY FLOW,
CLOUDS, AND RAINY CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE A BIT
LOWER IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE
TO EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF ON FRIDAY, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ANY POSSIBLE SEA-BREEZE/DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS PEAK BACK UP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE'S SOME DETAILS TO BE FLUSHED OUT,
BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT HOT AND WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. AS SUCH, PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. MACHINE
LEARNING OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT LEAST MARGINAL-EQUIVALENT
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
NEITHER IS SIMULATED BULK-LAYER SHEAR. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY, BUT FOR NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE KINEMATIC SPACE FOR SVR WEATHER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS AND ADDITIONAL
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 625 AM TUESDAY...
APART FROM PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR EAST THAT WILL AFFECT RWI EARLY
THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. AT RWI, VSBYS
WILL CONTINUE TO SWING WIDELY BETWEEN VFR AND IFR/LIFR THROUGH 13Z
OR SO AS ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG PASS NEAR THE AIRFIELD, HOWEVER
THESE FOG PATCHES ARE LIKELY TO STAY E OF FAY THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, THE SWATH OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN
WILDFIRES THAT WAS NOTED ON GOES GEOCOLOR IMAGERY OVER S AND E NC
LATE MON HAS THINNED OUT AND SHIFTED TO OUR S, BUT IT'S EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK INTO S AND W SECTIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 6SM AFTER 16Z AT
INT/GSO AND PERHAPS RDU/FAY. OTHERWISE, ONLY SCT CLOUDS BASED ~5KFT
AND ~25KFT ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, BUT
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SUB-VFR (MOSTLY IFR/LIFR) CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER THE W PIEDMONT AFTER 09Z, INCLUDING AT INT/GSO.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE THROUGH THIS MORNING, THEN
PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SSE OR SE UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 18Z.
LOOKING BEYOND 12Z WED, THE EXPECTED POCKETS OF SUB-VFR FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE W PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND IMPROVE
THROUGH 14Z WED MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WED, ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY, FOLLOWED BY LOWERING CLOUD BASES FROM S TO
N WED EVENING, AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE SW. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT, LASTING INTO EARLY
FRI. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND AVIATION RESTRICTIONS WED
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WILL BE AT FAY, BUT A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE. AFTER A BRIEF PRECIP LULL FRI
AFTERNOON/NIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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