312
FXUS62 KRAH 031932
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
332 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
INTO NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST, THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM TUESDAY...
ALTHOUGH GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE AND AEROSOL OPTICAL DEPTH DATA
DEPICT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM
THE LWR GREAT LAKES SEWD AND ALONG THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,
WHICH HRRR SMOKE FIELDS DO NOT APPEAR TO INITIALIZE OR SIMULATE WELL
AGAIN THIS MORNING, SMOKE ALSO REMAINS EVIDENT IN THOSE PRODUCTS,
AND ALSO IN AREA WEBCAMS, THROUGHOUT CNTL NC. ASIDE FROM INCLUDING
ASSOCIATED HAZE IN THE FORECAST AREA-WIDE, NO OTHER APPRECIABLE
CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE GRIDDED FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 03 2025/
* FAIR, DRY, AND SEASONABLE TODAY, PERHAPS A LITTLE HAZY IN THE WEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NE NE/SE VA AT LAST ANALYSIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN EASTWARD DRIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT,
EXTENDING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS NC WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.
ALOFT, A NARROW RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY NE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, ARCING NORTH OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. PW WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL, WITH DRY AND STABLE MID LEVELS, SO
DESPITE AFTERNOON SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THEY WERE MON, CLOUDS SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO A FEW FLAT
CU AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. RECENT HRRR SMOKE PROGS DO DEPICT SOME
NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE SPREADING BACK INTO THE S AND W CWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY MEAN A SOMEWHAT HAZY DAY ESP ACROSS OUR
S/W. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CREEPING UPWARD AND DECENT
INSOLATION TODAY, HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL, 82-89. EXPECT LOWS OF 56-64 TONIGHT UNDER FAIR SKIES. -GIH
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 332 PM TUESDAY...
* DRY WEDNESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TRANSITION DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DAY WILL START OFF WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NC COAST
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL WAVE OFF THE FL/GA COAST.
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, PERHAPS KEEPING WARMER TEMPERATURES AT
BAY IN THE PROCESS. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S THROUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE.
TODAY'S 00Z ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS MAINTAINS THE IDEA OF
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING COASTAL
LOW. HOWEVER SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTIONS ARE
SKEWED TOWARD THE FASTER GEFS WHICH WANTS TO BRING PRECIP ALL THE
WAY THROUGH NC BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, WHEREAS THE EC/EPS MEMBERS ARE
MUCH SLOWER AND HOLD OFF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. NATURALLY
WOULD APPEAR MUCH OF THE INITIAL SATURATION WILL TAKE PLACE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS, WITH FORECAST PROFILES
INCREASINGLY TIGHTENING UP CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY
PLAUSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE 12Z, HOWEVER THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN, WITH MUCH LOWER VALUES ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN
A GRADIENT OF 20-40 POPS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGHER VALUES WAITING
UNTIL THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WITH INCREASING CLOUD AND DEWPOINTS, LOW TEMPS WILL BE A BIT MORE
MILD AND CLOSER TO EARLY JUNE NORMALS WITH VALUES IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED: AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
GULF WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE THAT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS DEPARTING
UPPER WAVE, A STRONG LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE (FROM THE GULF) WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND A
SFC WAVE/LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE UP THE GA/SC COASTLINE. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT TO HOW MUCH
RAIN WE MAY SEE FROM THIS SYSTEM, AS SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SFC LOW
AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWAT OF ~1.5 TO 2 INCHES; ~140% OF
NORMAL) ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. OTHER GUIDANCE TREKS THE LOW AND
DEEP MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE OUTPUT, THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND 10TH PERCENTILE IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1 AND 1.5 INCHES (WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF OF A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST). THUS, THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WRT TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE/LOW AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE
MIGHT SEE. REGARDLESS, IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY HAZARDS RELATED TO
THIS THURSDAY SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BE POSSIBLE LOW-END CHANCE FOR
FLOODING IN OUR COASTAL PLAIN AREAS AT THIS POINT. GIVEN NELY FLOW,
CLOUDS, AND RAINY CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE A BIT
LOWER IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE
TO EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF ON FRIDAY, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ANY POSSIBLE SEA-BREEZE/DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS PEAK BACK UP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE'S SOME DETAILS TO BE FLUSHED OUT,
BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT HOT AND WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. AS SUCH, PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. MACHINE
LEARNING OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT LEAST MARGINAL-EQUIVALENT
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
NEITHER IS SIMULATED BULK-LAYER SHEAR. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY, BUT FOR NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE KINEMATIC SPACE FOR SVR WEATHER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS AND ADDITIONAL
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 205 PM TUESDAY...
GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN/RECOVERY, AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST, WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF IFR-MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN NC PIEDMONT WED MORNING,
INCLUDING AT INT/GSO. ADDITIONALLY, SHALLOW, PRE-DAWN RADIATION FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AT RWI. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OPERATIONALLY
INSIGNIFICANT AND GENERALLY LIGHT SLY, TO CALM TONIGHT MAINLY AT
RWI.
OUTLOOK: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, DURING WHICH TIME RAIN AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY AND PROLONGED, AND
LOWEST, AT FAY AND RWI. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND LINGER OVER NC
THIS WEEKEND.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...LEINS
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...MWS
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