022
FXUS62 KRAH 040638
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
235 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
* A DRY AND WARM DAY AHEAD, WITH RAIN ARRIVING TONIGHT.
LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON RAIN MOVING INTO OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE S AND SE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR E WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD BUT REMAIN OFF THE
VA/NC COAST TODAY, WHILE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OFF THE NE COAST OF
FL LIFTS N AND NNW INTO SC THROUGH TONIGHT, ENHANCING THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NC, ESP S AND W. ALOFT, MID LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST AND NOSING WNW INTO NC/VA WILL
GIVE WAY TODAY TO A N-DRIFTING MID LEVEL LOW NOTED ON WV IMAGERY
THIS MORNING OVER THE NE GULF, ALLOWING ENERGY EXTENDING E OF THE
LOW TO OFF THE FL E COAST TO LIFT N AND NNW INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
INTRODUCING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE OUTER EDGE OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHIELD ALREADY MOVING INTO
THE SE CWA, AND AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE AT 295K-300K WILL PROMPT DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR S AND W, LASTING INTO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT INCREASINGLY OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL NC TODAY, WITH STEADILY LOWERING BASES THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. ABOVE-NORMAL PW VALUES WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING, THEN BY 06Z-12Z, PWS OF 1.5-
2.0", ROUGHLY 120-150% OF NORMAL, WILL SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC N OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THE SURGE IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INFLOW WITH DEEPENING SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN AND
INCREASING/DEEPENING FORCING FOR ASCENT (INCLUDING STRONG MOIST
UPGLIDE, DPVA, AND UPPER DIVERGENCE) SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES, WITH RISING POPS S TO N TONIGHT, STARTING WITH CHANCE POPS
ALONG AND S OF HWY 64/I-40 THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT, HIGHEST IN THE S HALF WHERE ABOUT A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE,
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE SE LATE.
WITH DECENT FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY, EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S, WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE W PIEDMONT WHERE
HEATING WILL BE DELAYED BY AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS TONIGHT SUPPLANTING OUR RECENT COOL-ISH MORNING
TEMPS, EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S. -GIH
SHORT TERM / /
AS OF 332 PM TUESDAY...
TO BE UPDATED SHORTLY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
UPPER PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED: AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
GULF WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE THAT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS DEPARTING
UPPER WAVE, A STRONG LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE (FROM THE GULF) WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND A
SFC WAVE/LOW WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE UP THE GA/SC COASTLINE. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF RAIN EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY WRT TO HOW MUCH
RAIN WE MAY SEE FROM THIS SYSTEM, AS SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SFC LOW
AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (PWAT OF ~1.5 TO 2 INCHES; ~140% OF
NORMAL) ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. OTHER GUIDANCE TREKS THE LOW AND
DEEP MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE OUTPUT, THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND 10TH PERCENTILE IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1 AND 1.5 INCHES (WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF OF A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST). THUS, THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WRT TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE/LOW AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE
MIGHT SEE. REGARDLESS, IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANY HAZARDS RELATED TO
THIS THURSDAY SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BE POSSIBLE LOW-END CHANCE FOR
FLOODING IN OUR COASTAL PLAIN AREAS AT THIS POINT. GIVEN NELY FLOW,
CLOUDS, AND RAINY CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE A BIT
LOWER IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE
TO EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF ON FRIDAY, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ANY POSSIBLE SEA-BREEZE/DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS PEAK BACK UP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: THERE'S SOME DETAILS TO BE FLUSHED OUT,
BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING, EXPECT HOT AND WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY. AS SUCH, PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. MACHINE
LEARNING OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT LEAST MARGINAL-EQUIVALENT
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
NEITHER IS SIMULATED BULK-LAYER SHEAR. THIS COULD ULTIMATELY CHANGE
AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY, BUT FOR NOW NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH
THE KINEMATIC SPACE FOR SVR WEATHER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS AND ADDITIONAL
EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK EACH DAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM WEDNESDAY...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AT
RDU/RWI/FAY, HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVER THE S AND W PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO INT/GSO FROM 09Z TO 14Z. SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT CIGS COULD DROP TO LIFR AT INT/GSO, SO
WILL MONITOR FOR THAT POTENTIAL. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AFTER 16Z TODAY, ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE S DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOWERING BASES
INTO THE MID LEVELS BY MID EVENING. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TO OUR S AND SE WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES SW TO NE INTO
THE CAROLINAS, AN AREA OF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NC, MAINLY
IN THE SE, FROM S TO N FROM MID-LATE EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT FAY AFTER 03Z
AND RDU/RWI AFTER 05Z, WITH FAY POSSIBLE DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 05Z.
THESE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD SE OF INT/GSO TO THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT, UNDER
10 KT, FROM THE S TO SE THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO BE
MAINLY FROM THE SE AND E THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z THU, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT, DOMINATING AT ALL SITES FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN
THE E (FAY/RWI INTO RDU). SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT W TO E
THU NIGHT BUT ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE FRI AT RWI. A
BRIEF LULL IN RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRI, THEN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW, A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARRIVES SAT, LASTING THROUGH SUN IN THE E, WITH A RISK FOR EARLY-
MORNING FOG EACH DAY IN THE E. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LUCHETTI
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
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