007
FXUS62 KRAH 040713
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
312 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
* A DRY AND WARM DAY AHEAD, WITH RAIN ARRIVING TONIGHT.
LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON RAIN MOVING INTO OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE S AND SE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR E WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD BUT REMAIN OFF THE
VA/NC COAST TODAY, WHILE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OFF THE NE COAST OF
FL LIFTS N AND NNW INTO SC THROUGH TONIGHT, ENHANCING THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NC, ESP S AND W. ALOFT, MID LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST AND NOSING WNW INTO NC/VA WILL
GIVE WAY TODAY TO A N-DRIFTING MID LEVEL LOW NOTED ON WV IMAGERY
THIS MORNING OVER THE NE GULF, ALLOWING ENERGY EXTENDING E OF THE
LOW TO OFF THE FL E COAST TO LIFT N AND NNW INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
INTRODUCING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE OUTER EDGE OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHIELD ALREADY MOVING INTO
THE SE CWA, AND AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE AT 295K-300K WILL PROMPT DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR S AND W, LASTING INTO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT INCREASINGLY OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL NC TODAY, WITH STEADILY LOWERING BASES THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. ABOVE-NORMAL PW VALUES WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING, THEN BY 06Z-12Z, PWS OF 1.5-
2.0", ROUGHLY 120-150% OF NORMAL, WILL SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC N OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THE SURGE IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INFLOW WITH DEEPENING SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN AND
INCREASING/DEEPENING FORCING FOR ASCENT (INCLUDING STRONG MOIST
UPGLIDE, DPVA, AND UPPER DIVERGENCE) SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES, WITH RISING POPS S TO N TONIGHT, STARTING WITH CHANCE POPS
ALONG AND S OF HWY 64/I-40 THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT, HIGHEST IN THE S HALF WHERE ABOUT A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE,
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE SE LATE.
WITH DECENT FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY, EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S, WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE W PIEDMONT WHERE
HEATING WILL BE DELAYED BY AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS TONIGHT SUPPLANTING OUR RECENT COOL-ISH MORNING
TEMPS, EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S. -GIH
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
* CLOUDY AND RAINY DAY LIKELY, ESP S AND E SECTIONS, WHERE SOME
MDT-HEAVY RAIN TOTALS MAY OCCUR.
THE FORMER MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE THEN ENE AS
AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH NC/VA THU, BEFORE NUDGING JUST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW, MEANWHILE, WILL
TRACK NE THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND E NC THROUGH THU NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY ATTAINING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE PROCESS
(SEE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NHC). HIGH POPS APPEAR WARRANTED THU,
ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA, WITH CLOSE MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE (1.5-2.0" PW WITH TAPS OF BOTH GULF
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE) AND DEEP LIFT N AND NE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
MID LEVEL WAVE, SO HAVE UPPED POPS WITH A WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES OVER THE S AND E THU. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 1.5" IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THU NIGHT, HIGHEST IN THE SE, AND GIVEN THE
PROJECTED DEEP LCL-TO-OC LAYER OVER 4 KM FAVORING WARM RAIN
PROCESSES AND A TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FLUX, HIGHER TOTALS OVER 2"
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS E OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING W OR NW IN ITS WAKE WITH
REBOUNDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THE ONSET OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THE W
LATE, WILL HAVE POPS WINDING DOWN FROM W TO E GRADUALLY THU NIGHT,
WITH AN ATTENDANT SLOW DOWNTURN IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL. EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THU, MOSTLY LOW-MID 70S, WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. LOWS THU
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S W TO E. -GIH
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS OF 312 AM WEDNESDAY...
-STALLED FRONTAL ZONE TO BRING WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL
LOW OVER EASTERN NC MAY SUPPORT SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE
LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE. ADDITIONALLY, SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE
IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BRINGS A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT LIKELY TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION, THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH AND ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT PERIODS
OF ENHANCED AND POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION--POSSIBLY ON A
DAILY BASIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD--AS
SUGGESTED BY HISTORICAL ANALOGS AND MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES.
STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE DETAILS/TIMING, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH SATURDAY SHAPING UP TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1255 AM WEDNESDAY...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AT
RDU/RWI/FAY, HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOW CIGS TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVER THE S AND W PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO INT/GSO FROM 09Z TO 14Z. SOME
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT CIGS COULD DROP TO LIFR AT INT/GSO, SO
WILL MONITOR FOR THAT POTENTIAL. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AFTER 16Z TODAY, ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE S DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOWERING BASES
INTO THE MID LEVELS BY MID EVENING. AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
TO OUR S AND SE WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES SW TO NE INTO
THE CAROLINAS, AN AREA OF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NC, MAINLY
IN THE SE, FROM S TO N FROM MID-LATE EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT FAY AFTER 03Z
AND RDU/RWI AFTER 05Z, WITH FAY POSSIBLE DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 05Z.
THESE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD SE OF INT/GSO TO THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT, UNDER
10 KT, FROM THE S TO SE THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING GRADUALLY TO BE
MAINLY FROM THE SE AND E THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOOKING BEYOND 06Z THU, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT, DOMINATING AT ALL SITES FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN
THE E (FAY/RWI INTO RDU). SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT W TO E
THU NIGHT BUT ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE FRI AT RWI. A
BRIEF LULL IN RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED MUCH OF FRI, THEN AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW, A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARRIVES SAT, LASTING THROUGH SUN IN THE E, WITH A RISK FOR EARLY-
MORNING FOG EACH DAY IN THE E. -GIH
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page