504
FXUS62 KRAH 041845
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
INTO NC THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST, THEN
TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1050 AM WEDNESDAY...
* GENERALLY PERSISTENCE WARMTH MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S TODAY, THEN
RAIN DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS CNTL NC THU MORNING
THE MAIN GRIDDED FORECAST CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE THE
POP TEMPORAL RESOLUTION TO HOURLY AND TO SLOW THE NWD SPREAD/ARRIVAL
OF RAIN INTO CNTL NC OVERNIGHT. DEEP DRYNESS WAS OBSERVED IN BOTH
THE GSO AND MHX RAOBS THIS MORNING, AND THE INITIAL RAIN SHIELD
THAT WILL BE FALLING FROM LOWERING HIGH THROUGH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS
EARLY TONIGHT WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME OVERCOMING SUB-CLOUD
DRYNESS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY RESULT THIS EVENING, MEASURABLE
RAIN IS UNLIKELY TO MATERIALIZE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT-THU MORNING,
WHEN LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF CNTL NC, AND PROBABLY INTO THE TRIANGLE AROUND THE TIME OF
THE THU MORNING COMMUTE.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 235 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2025/
LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON RAIN MOVING INTO OUR AREA
LATE TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE S AND SE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR E WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD BUT REMAIN OFF THE
VA/NC COAST TODAY, WHILE A SURFACE LOW FORMING OFF THE NE COAST OF
FL LIFTS N AND NNW INTO SC THROUGH TONIGHT, ENHANCING THE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NC, ESP S AND W. ALOFT, MID LEVEL
RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST AND NOSING WNW INTO NC/VA WILL
GIVE WAY TODAY TO A N-DRIFTING MID LEVEL LOW NOTED ON WV IMAGERY
THIS MORNING OVER THE NE GULF, ALLOWING ENERGY EXTENDING E OF THE
LOW TO OFF THE FL E COAST TO LIFT N AND NNW INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
INTRODUCING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE OUTER EDGE OF THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHIELD ALREADY MOVING INTO
THE SE CWA, AND AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOIST UPGLIDE AT 295K-300K WILL PROMPT DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS OUR S AND W, LASTING INTO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT INCREASINGLY OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVERSPREADING
CENTRAL NC TODAY, WITH STEADILY LOWERING BASES THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. ABOVE-NORMAL PW VALUES WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING, THEN BY 06Z-12Z, PWS OF 1.5-
2.0", ROUGHLY 120-150% OF NORMAL, WILL SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF
CENTRAL NC N OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THE SURGE IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INFLOW WITH DEEPENING SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN AND
INCREASING/DEEPENING FORCING FOR ASCENT (INCLUDING STRONG MOIST
UPGLIDE, DPVA, AND UPPER DIVERGENCE) SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES, WITH RISING POPS S TO N TONIGHT, STARTING WITH CHANCE POPS
ALONG AND S OF HWY 64/I-40 THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT, HIGHEST IN THE S HALF WHERE ABOUT A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. IF TRENDS CONTINUE,
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE SE LATE.
WITH DECENT FILTERED SUNSHINE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY, EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S, WITH LOWER VALUES IN THE W PIEDMONT WHERE
HEATING WILL BE DELAYED BY AREAS OF MORNING STRATUS. WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS TONIGHT SUPPLANTING OUR RECENT COOL-ISH MORNING
TEMPS, EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S. -GIH
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 AM WEDNESDAY...
* CLOUDY AND RAINY DAY LIKELY, ESP S AND E SECTIONS, WHERE SOME
MDT-HEAVY RAIN TOTALS MAY OCCUR.
THE FORMER MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE THEN ENE AS
AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH NC/VA THU, BEFORE NUDGING JUST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW, MEANWHILE, WILL
TRACK NE THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND E NC THROUGH THU NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY ATTAINING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE PROCESS
(SEE LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE NHC). HIGH POPS APPEAR WARRANTED THU,
ESP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA, WITH CLOSE MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE (1.5-2.0" PW WITH TAPS OF BOTH GULF
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE) AND DEEP LIFT N AND NE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
MID LEVEL WAVE, SO HAVE UPPED POPS WITH A WINDOW OF CATEGORICAL
VALUES OVER THE S AND E THU. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AROUND 1.5" IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THU NIGHT, HIGHEST IN THE SE, AND GIVEN THE
PROJECTED DEEP LCL-TO-OC LAYER OVER 4 KM FAVORING WARM RAIN
PROCESSES AND A TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FLUX, HIGHER TOTALS OVER 2"
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS E OF THE CWA THU
NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING W OR NW IN ITS WAKE WITH
REBOUNDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND THE ONSET OF SUBSIDENCE FROM THE W
LATE, WILL HAVE POPS WINDING DOWN FROM W TO E GRADUALLY THU NIGHT,
WITH AN ATTENDANT SLOW DOWNTURN IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL. EXPECT BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THU, MOSTLY LOW-MID 70S, WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. LOWS THU
NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S W TO E. -GIH
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WITH LOWEST
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. ABOVE-
CLIMO RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINING DAYS.
- TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY DAILY, MOSTLY DIURNAL,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY, AS SLOWLY-EVOLVING BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TRANSITS ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT OF NORTH AMERICA, ALL
WHILE SENDING SHORTER-WAVELENGTH DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONTS ACCOMPANYING EACH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL APPROACH AND
STALL OR FIZZLE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME, ALL OF WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE THE DAILY SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES.
OF THE DAYS IN THE LONG TERM, THE DRIEST DAY (POP <20%) WILL BE
FRIDAY, THANKS TO OUR AREA BRIEFLY BEING IN THE SUBSIDENT REGION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW THAT WAS NOTED IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM PERIODS. THE WETTEST DAY (POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE) MAY END UP
BEING TUESDAY GIVEN THAT THE SHARPEST OF THE SHORT WAVES WILL BE
PASSING BY THAT DAY. POPS FOR THE REMAINING DAYS IN THE LONG-TERM
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE, AGAIN, MAINLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE.
DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S) GIVEN THAT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL POSITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR WEST
MOST OF THE PERIOD. NIGHT-TIME LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70) DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE.
FINALLY, FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND... THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHILE THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 132 PM WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY SCATTERED LOW VFR FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS, MAINLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT, WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVER
SC SPREAD NORTHWARD. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER GRADUALLY AS VERY
LIGHT RAIN SPREADS NORTHWARD, BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. INITIALLY MVFR WILL QUICKLY FALL TO IFR FROM S TO
N OVERNIGHT INTO THURS MORNING, AT THIS TIME RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE STEADY AND RESULT IN MVFR VSBY AS WELL. POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE AT FAY,
INT/GSO, RDU THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK: LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES (RDU,
FAY, AND RWI). SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT W TO E THU
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING BUT ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE FRI AT RWI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
THE TRIAD TERMINALS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVING
INTO AND STALLING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD SAT
THROUGH WED FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB-
VFR FOG/STRATUS EACH MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...SWIGGETT/HARTFIELD
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