913
FXUS62 KRAH 050758
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
358 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT,
THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 350 AM THURSDAY...
* ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
* CONDITIONAL/LOW-END THREAT OF A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO
OVERVIEW: A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE, FEATURING PWATS OF 2-2.25"(99TH PERCENTILE), WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 09 TO 15Z. RAIN
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN, AND TO A LESS EXTENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT: TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER AND RAIN, BUT INCREASING BL DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MODEST HEATING WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK BUOYANCY OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SFC CIRCULATION INTO THE AREA. COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD PWATS AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC WAVE, LOCALLY ENHANCED
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP TOTALS
COULD REACH 2-3"(NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES ~40%), WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF 3-5" POSSIBLE (NEIGHBORHOOD PROBS ~20-30%). THESE HIGHER
TOTALS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, THOUGH SUCH MAXIMA CAN
EASILY SHIFT ON MESOSCALE VARIABILITY.
SEVERE THREAT: DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW, WIND PROFILES
WILL VEER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER, SUPPORTING CLOCKWISE-
CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 150-250 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE HELICITY. THIS WOULD
FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND MINI SUPERCELLS
PARTICULARLY FROM 12 TO 18Z, WHEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY IS
MAXIMIZED. BY AFTERNOON, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. STILL A
CONDITIONAL THREAT EXISTS FOR A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES: WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL MODULATE HIGH TEMPS;
75-80. LOWS 65-70.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...
THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE OUTER BANKS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE NE INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, TAKING THE PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WITH IT. SUBSIDENCE AND
N/NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NC, WHICH WILL
SOMEWHAT LIMIT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. LOOKING UPSTREAM, AN MCS
WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY
WEST OF CENTRAL NC UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL, THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER-80S TO 90 IN MANY SPOTS (MID-80S
ACROSS THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN).
LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS POTENTIAL FOR 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ACROSS THE WEST, DECREASING FARTHER EAST. SO WHILE ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED, IT CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY IN
THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE THE 00Z HREF INDICATES THERE IS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. POPS THERE ARE IN THE 30-40% CHANCE
RANGE, DECREASING TO SLIGHT ELSEWHERE. THE NW IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC
HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, THINK THIS THREAT WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED GIVEN ONLY 20-30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AT MOST, AND MOST OF THE
CELLS SHOULD BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MCS WILL
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENED STATE AND THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING, EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT TO BE MINIMAL. IT SHOULD STILL BRING EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER, KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MILD, IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER-
70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD WITH LOWEST
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. ABOVE-
CLIMO RAIN CHANCES THE REMAINING DAYS.
- TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY DAILY, MOSTLY DIURNAL,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY, AS SLOWLY-EVOLVING BROAD
UPPER TROUGH TRANSITS ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT OF NORTH AMERICA, ALL
WHILE SENDING SHORTER-WAVELENGTH DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. A SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONTS ACCOMPANYING EACH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVES WILL APPROACH AND
STALL OR FIZZLE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME, ALL OF WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE THE DAILY SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES.
OF THE DAYS IN THE LONG TERM, THE DRIEST DAY (POP <20%) WILL BE
FRIDAY, THANKS TO OUR AREA BRIEFLY BEING IN THE SUBSIDENT REGION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW THAT WAS NOTED IN THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM PERIODS. THE WETTEST DAY (POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE) MAY END UP
BEING TUESDAY GIVEN THAT THE SHARPEST OF THE SHORT WAVES WILL BE
PASSING BY THAT DAY. POPS FOR THE REMAINING DAYS IN THE LONG-TERM
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE, AGAIN, MAINLY DIURNAL IN
NATURE.
DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S) GIVEN THAT THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL POSITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR WEST
MOST OF THE PERIOD. NIGHT-TIME LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70) DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE.
FINALLY, FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND... THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHILE THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 220 AM THURSDAY...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT,
THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 09 TO 15Z.
RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT
KFAY, AND TO A LESS EXTENT AT KRDU AND KRWI.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AT MOST
TERMINALS, WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. IF THE HEAVIER
RAIN/SHOWERS REMAIN EAST OF THE KINT AND KGSO, THOSE SITES COULD
REMAIN MVFR OR EVEN EXPERIENCE LOW-END VFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 00 TO 03Z FRIDAY, BULK OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA, WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST,
DRIER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE SUB-VFR
CEILINGS AT KINT AND KGSO TO IMPROVE TO VFR. HOWEVER, CEILINGS AT
KRDU, KFAY, AND KRWI CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIFR TO IFR
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TRIAD
TERMINALS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVING INTO AND
STALLING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING AN UNSETTLED PERIOD SAT THROUGH
WED FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR
FOG/STRATUS EACH MORNING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CBL/MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...DANCO
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...CBL/HARTFIELD
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