091
FXUS62 KRAH 051812
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
212 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NC THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL OVERSPREAD AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL OVER NC THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1135 AM THURSDAY...
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS OF A WET AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE DAY
REMAIN, ALONG WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING.
THE GREATEST FLOODING RISK IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL ACCOMPANY A
925 MB LOW AND RELATED COMPACT, DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN RESPONSIBLE
FOR 1-1.25"/HR AMOUNTS NOW PIVOTING ACROSS ROWAN AND DAVIDSON CO.
THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AFFECT DAVIDSON CO.
THEN DOWNSTREAM INTO RANDOLPH AND CHATHAM, AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT SRN
PORTIONS OF GUILFORD AND ALAMANCE AND NRN STANLY, MONTGOMERY, AND
MOORE. CO THROUGH ~19Z. ADDITIONAL, HEAVY AND CONVECTIVE RAIN MAY
MATERIALIZE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SANDHILLS, ERN PIEDMONT, AND SRN AND CNTL COASTAL PLAIN, WHERE
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN
SC AND SERN NC MAY TEND TO SLOW AND CONVERGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE LIMITED IN THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE, MOSTLY RELATED TO A WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER SWD TRACK
OF A WEAK, 1017 MB SURFACE LOW OVER N-CNTL SC AT 15Z, WHICH WILL
WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ENEWD AND PROBABLY ACROSS SRN THROUGH ERN NC
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RELATIVELY GREATEST, NON-ZERO RISK OF A QUICK
SPIN-UP WILL EXIST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, WHERE
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED WITH A SIGNIFICANT ELY COMPONENT
AND WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH WILL BE MAXIMIZED PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 100-150
M2/S2.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 350 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2025/
* ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
* CONDITIONAL/LOW-END THREAT OF A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO
OVERVIEW: A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST
WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE, FEATURING PWATS OF 2-2.25"(99TH PERCENTILE), WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 09 TO 15Z. RAIN
MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN, AND TO A LESS EXTENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT: TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER AND RAIN, BUT INCREASING BL DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MODEST HEATING WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK BUOYANCY OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
SFC CIRCULATION INTO THE AREA. COMBINED WITH NEAR RECORD PWATS AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC WAVE, LOCALLY ENHANCED
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP TOTALS
COULD REACH 2-3"(NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES ~40%), WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF 3-5" POSSIBLE (NEIGHBORHOOD PROBS ~20-30%). THESE HIGHER
TOTALS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES, THOUGH SUCH MAXIMA CAN
EASILY SHIFT ON MESOSCALE VARIABILITY.
SEVERE THREAT: DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER FLOW, WIND PROFILES
WILL VEER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER, SUPPORTING CLOCKWISE-
CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND 150-250 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE HELICITY. THIS WOULD
FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND MINI SUPERCELLS
PARTICULARLY FROM 12 TO 18Z, WHEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY IS
MAXIMIZED. BY AFTERNOON, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. STILL A
CONDITIONAL THREAT EXISTS FOR A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES: WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL MODULATE HIGH TEMPS;
75-80. LOWS 65-70.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 355 AM THURSDAY...
THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE OUTER BANKS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE NE INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, TAKING THE PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WITH IT. SUBSIDENCE AND
N/NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NC, WHICH WILL
SOMEWHAT LIMIT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. LOOKING UPSTREAM, AN MCS
WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY
WEST OF CENTRAL NC UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL, THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER-80S TO 90 IN MANY SPOTS (MID-80S
ACROSS THE FAR NE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN).
LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS POTENTIAL FOR 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ACROSS THE WEST, DECREASING FARTHER EAST. SO WHILE ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD BE ISOLATED, IT CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY IN
THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE THE 00Z HREF INDICATES THERE IS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. POPS THERE ARE IN THE 30-40% CHANCE
RANGE, DECREASING TO SLIGHT ELSEWHERE. THE NW IS ALSO WHERE THE SPC
HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, THINK THIS THREAT WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED GIVEN ONLY 20-30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AT MOST, AND MOST OF THE
CELLS SHOULD BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MCS WILL
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN IT WILL BE IN A
WEAKENED STATE AND THE UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING, EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT TO BE MINIMAL. IT SHOULD STILL BRING EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER, KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES MILD, IN THE MID-60S TO LOWER-
70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 425 AM THURSDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BRING A VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD
FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE ABOVE
CLIMO EACH DAY, MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO FEATURE YET ANOTHER MCS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY, BUT AGAIN THE REMNANT MCV DOESN'T LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN STILL, A BELT OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE, WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
30-40 KTS. INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BETTER THAN FRIDAY ACROSS
THE WHOLE REGION, WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AMID RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S) AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER-80S TO LOWER-90S. SO SPC HAS
INTRODUCED A DAY 3 MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION, WITH A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK CLIPPING
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. DAMAGING WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT. POPS ARE ALSO HIGHER THAN FRIDAY, MOSTLY IN THE HIGH CHANCE
RANGE. SATURDAY'S HEAT INDICES COULD ALSO REACH THE UPPER-90S TO
LOWER-100S ACROSS THE FAR SE.
POPS INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO LIKELY EVERYWHERE AS A LOW OVER
THE OH VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARDS OUR REGION. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MEAN ANOTHER
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO FIZZLE OUT ON MONDAY, AND WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE PLUS WEAKER FLOW ALOFT, MONDAY COULD FEATURE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE. POPS ARE ONLY IN THE
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE. HOWEVER, THIS REPRIEVE LOOKS TO BE SHORT-
LIVED, AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES HELPS PUSH
THE BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH FARTHER EAST WITH
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO THE APPALACHIANS. SO POPS ARE BACK IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ON TUESDAY, AND MORE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE TROUGHING
FINALLY STARTS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST US ON WEDNESDAY
AS IT GETS REPLACED BY RIDGING FARTHER WEST. STILL, WITH THE COLD
FRONT STALLED EITHER OVER OR NW OF OUR REGION, MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THESE COLD FRONTS LOOK TO EITHER
REMAIN TO OUR NW OR FIZZLE OUT BY THE TIME THEY REACH US, EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, GENERALLY MID-TO-UPPER-80S. LOWS WILL BE
KEPT MILD DUE TO EXTENSIVE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER, GENERALLY MID-
60S TO LOWER-70S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 210 PM THURSDAY...
IFR-MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN, AND CONVECTION (SHOWERS/STORMS)
MAINLY AT FAY, WILL ACCOMPANY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
TRACK ACROSS CNTL AND ERN NC THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER
CLEARING BEHIND THE LOW LATER TONIGHT-FRI MORNING WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW OVERCAST AT INT/GSO, AND PROBABLY AN
OTHERWISE LOWERING OF EXISTING CEILINGS INTO LIFR RANGE ELSEWHERE,
THROUGH FRI MORNING. LIFTING AND SCATTERING OF THAT SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13-15Z
FRI.
OUTLOOK: A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND
LINGER OVER NC THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS
THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON-EVENING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS/CBL
SHORT TERM...DANCO
LONG TERM...DANCO
AVIATION...MWS
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