757
FXUS62 KRAH 060634
AFDRAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
230 AM EDT FRI JUN 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NC THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL OVERSPREAD AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND STALL OVER NC THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
* ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND IT'S ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA HAS MOSTLY
DISSIPATED. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE(HIGHEST HREF PROBS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT) THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING, SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
IN IT'S WAKE WILL PROMOTE SCOURING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BETWEEN 12 TO 16Z. ABUNDANT
AFTERNOON SUN WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM HIGHS, WITH MOST PLACES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.
MCVS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING MCS OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS,
WILL APPROACH THE NC MTNS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, THEN TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. RENEWED LIFT/FORCING FROM THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 20-02Z.
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, INCLUDING MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-
30KTS AND ML CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT IS GREATEST BETWEEN 4 TO 8 PM.
AS THE STORMS ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT BETWEEN
00 TO 06Z SATURDAY, NOCTURNAL COOLING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND POSSIBLY
DISSIPATION OF CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS 65 TO 70.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BETTER DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS
WEEKEND AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LITTLE LESS CONVECTION THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. CONVECTION ACROSS THE TN VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE REMNANTS MOVING INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NC ON SATURDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATING. WHILE
CLOUD COVER MAY BE INCREASED, RAIN CHANCES WOULD APPEAR LIMITED
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE REMNANTS
MAY BE A CONTRIBUTOR TO CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 240 PM THURSDAY...
* GENERAL MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF GREATER THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
* RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
* STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF
STRONGER STORMS ON SUNDAY AND PERHAPS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROP INTO THE REGION. WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES,
MODERATELY INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED FLOW, THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH SHOULD
RESULT IN A BIT OF A LULL OR REDUCED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A
STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
AND ENHANCED FLOW SPREADING INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HIGH POPS AND A THREAT
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGHING
MOVES OFFSHORE AND SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY RESULTING IN A DIMINISHED RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RANGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD. HIGHS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS THERE IS APT TO BE A LULL IN
CONVECTION AND PERHAPS CLOUD COVER. HEAT INDEX VALUES THESE DAYS
WILL RANGE IN THE 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AREAS. OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.
-BLAES
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 140 AM FRIDAY...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND IT'S ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA HAS MOSTLY
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD LIFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH PATCHY FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY STAY
JUST EAST OF KINT, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING THAT TERMINAL TO REMAIN VFR.
AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING, SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
IN IT'S WAKE WILL PROMOTE SCOURING OUT OF STRATUS AND FOG FROM WEST
TO EAST BETWEEN 12 TO 16Z.
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AT KINT AND KGSO. HOWEVER, NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO WEAKENING CONVECTION AS IT ATTEMPTS TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD BETWEEN 00 TO 06Z SATURDAY, WITH PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: A GOOD CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/
STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO AND
LINGER OVER NC THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. AREAS OF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WHERE RAIN OCCURS
THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON-EVENING.
RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...CBL/MWS
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